BEIJING, July 10 — China’s push to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030 rests heavily on the Long March 10 rocket series, a launch vehicle the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) first detailed in 2023. Officials said the rocket is designed to carry up to 27 metric tons to trans-lunar injection — the critical trajectory that sends a spacecraft from Earth orbit toward the Moon. The CMSA has stated that the Long March 10 will launch two key spacecraft: the Mengzhou crew capsule and the Lanyue lunar lander.
Under current plans, the crewed mission requires two separate Long March 10 launches — one for the crew capsule and one for the lander — which will dock in lunar orbit before descending to the surface. China’s lunar program, known as the Chang’e missions, began in 2007 with Chang’e 1, an orbiter that mapped the Moon’s surface.
According to state and international reports, the program has since expanded to include orbiters, landers, and sample-return missions. Chang’e 5, which landed on the Moon in 2020, returned 1.7 kilograms of lunar soil — the first lunar samples brought to Earth since the Soviet Union’s Luna 24 mission in 1974.
A rocket tested, a station completed
The first uncrewed test of the Long March 10 is expected in 2025, according to CMSA announcements. That test will be closely watched by space analysts, as the rocket represents a significant leap in Chinese launch capacity. The Long March 10 is not yet flight-proven, and its development timeline will determine whether Beijing can meet its 2030 crewed lunar landing goal.
China’s space station, Tiangong, has been fully operational since 2022. The station serves as a platform for crew training and technology demonstration that could support lunar missions.
The CMSA has indicated that experience aboard Tiangong — including long-duration habitation and life-support systems — feeds directly into planning for the Moon program. For regional observers, the lunar program fits a pattern of steady, state-directed technological advance. But the program also raises strategic questions.
The same rocket technology that can send astronauts to the Moon can, in principle, be adapted for intercontinental ballistic missiles — a concern that Western defense analysts have noted, though China maintains its space program is entirely peaceful.
What to watch next
The 2025 uncrewed test of the Long March 10 will be the next major milestone. If that flight succeeds, the pace of preparation for a crewed mission will almost certainly accelerate. The CMSA has not announced a specific date for the first crewed lunar landing beyond the 2030 target, but the sequence of launches — two Long March 10 flights, orbital docking, and a lander descent — is now publicly mapped out.
China’s lunar ambitions are not new. The Chang’e program has delivered a steady cadence of robotic missions over nearly two decades.
What is new is the explicit goal of putting Chinese astronauts on the Moon, and the hardware — the Long March 10, the Mengzhou capsule, the Lanyue lander — that is now taking shape. Whether that hardware performs as designed will determine whether Beijing’s lunar timeline holds.
