WASHINGTON, July 15 — A partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz could remove 5 to 10 million barrels per day from global oil markets, according to analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the International Energy Agency.
Those scenarios, modeled by the two research bodies, project that such a disruption could drive oil prices above $150 per barrel. The record shows that during the 1990–1991 Gulf War, prices briefly spiked to $40 in 1990 dollars.
The strait is a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum passes. A full closure, analysts warn, could remove 17 million barrels per day from global supply, an event they say would likely trigger a global recession.
Strategic reserves and military options
The United States maintains the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has a capacity of 695 million barrels, according to data from 2020. By late 2023, the SPR held 375 million barrels. Other nations also hold strategic stockpiles, though the source material does not specify their volumes.
On the military side, the U.S. Navy and allied forces could attempt to clear mines from the strait and escort commercial tankers through the waterway. Sources familiar with the contingency planning describe such operations as complex but within the capabilities of the alliance.
Diplomatic track in limbo
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known as the JCPOA, was designed to reduce tensions with Iran, the country that controls the eastern shore of the strait. The United States withdrew from that agreement in 2018. As of 2023, the accord remains in diplomatic limbo.
Analysts at CSIS and the IEA have not publicly updated their disruption scenarios since the JCPOA’s status became uncertain. The timeline shows that diplomatic efforts to revive the deal have not produced a breakthrough.
What to watch
The key variables going forward include the volume of oil held in strategic reserves globally, the readiness of naval forces to respond to a closure, and whether diplomatic channels can be reopened. Any actual disruption at the strait would test both the physical infrastructure of the global oil market and the political will of the nations that depend on it.
For now, the models from CSIS and the IEA remain the most detailed public assessment of what a closure would mean. The record shows that the price spike during the Gulf War lasted only briefly, but the scale of potential disruption today is far larger.
