Brent crude averaged $64 a barrel in February 2026. By mid-March it was above $100, and on March 30 it peaked at about $116.
That climb followed the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict at the end of February and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Grand View Research, in a March analysis, called the crisis a turning point for the global oil and gas industry. Benchmark prices rose nearly 50 to 60 per cent within a month. They dipped to around $103 in the fourth week of March, which the analysts described as short-term repositioning, not any easing of supply constraints. Extreme scenarios in the report project $150 to $200 a barrel if the conflict drags on or key routes stay shut.
What moves through the strait
Roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and around 25% of seaborne oil trade pass through the waterway. It also carries nearly 19% of global LNG trade. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Qatar all depend on it, and much of the flow goes to China, India, Japan and South Korea. Pipelines and other export routes exist, but the report says they lack the capacity to make up the difference.
The damage to supply
Middle Eastern exports fell by more than 60% as of mid-March, from about 25 million barrels a day to below 10 million. Regional production cuts ran to 7 to 10 million barrels a day, up to roughly 10% of global demand. The UAE cut output by more than 50%, Iraq by about 70% and Saudi Arabia by about 20%. OPEC crude output dropped to roughly 21.6 million barrels a day in March, nearly 7 million below its February level, in one of the steepest contractions since the 2020 pandemic shock.
Qatar took a separate hit. Attacks on QatarEnergy infrastructure on March 18 and 19 cut its export capacity by about 17%, or 12.8 million tonnes a year. The report estimates $20 billion in annual revenue losses and says full restoration could take up to five years.
Rerouted cargoes added freight, insurance and transit-time costs, squeezing supply further, especially for import-dependent Asia and Europe.
China and India
China, which consumes 15 to 16 million barrels of oil a day and imports 70 to 75% of it, told refiners in early March to halt new fuel export contracts and cancel some shipments. Zhejiang Petrochemical and Sinopec’s Fujian refinery reduced throughput. Independent refiners in Shandong cut utilization to about 50 to 55%. Even so, the report says diversified sourcing, strategic reserves and discounted crude let China avoid severe physical shortages.
India depends on imports for 85 to 90% of its oil. It also relied on imports for about 67% of the LPG it consumed in the 2025 fiscal year, and roughly 90% of those imports came through Hormuz. Disruption in that corridor delayed cargoes and led to a commercial LPG shortage in March.
