LOS ANGELES, November 13, 2026 — Researchers are updating the 2008 ShakeOut Scenario model to account for societal shifts, new data, and mitigation efforts for a major earthquake in Southern California. The updated project, ShakeOut Scenario 2.0, aims to be completed in 2028 and will evaluate building damage, triggered disasters, business disruption, and social disruption.
Background And Motivation
The original ShakeOut Scenario modeled a magnitude-7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, predicting about 1,800 deaths and $213 billion in economic losses. The scenario was unveiled in 2008 and led by renowned seismologist Lucy Jones. However, Jones said the original scenario is now “a bit out of date” due to societal changes and new data. Researchers want to evaluate what mitigation has done over the past 20 years and how different policy actions would change outcomes.
New Data And Insights
Researchers are utilizing new data from a 2023 major earthquake in Turkey, which is “a very close analog to the San Andreas,” Jones said. The destructive Los Angeles County wildfires in 2025 and a cold storage warehouse fire in Boyle Heights provided new insights on urban disasters. The updated model will also consider the impact of remote work and greater dependence on electricity on business disruption and social disruption.
Goals And Objectives
The goals of the updated model include revised impact estimates, information for policymakers, and guidance for emergency plans. Jones said she wants the updated model to show how officials can change the outcome of a major earthquake by taking different policy actions, such as widespread adoptions related to retrofitting or implementing earthquake early warnings. The updated model will also help agencies prioritize their investments for mitigation and inform emergency planning.
The company said the updated model will be used to model the damage from a major earthquake and provide a common reference for talking about risk. Officials noted that the original scenario helped put together a picture of what awaited the region after a 7.8-magnitude earthquake. Data shows that the updated model will be a valuable tool for policymakers and emergency responders. Jones said she wants people to “understand that just because you got through that first week and you’re not feeling an earthquake every day or every hour doesn’t mean the risk is gone.” The ShakeOut Scenario 2.0 is expected to be completed in 2028.
Sources
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