TEHRAN, June 28 — Two things happened last week that give us a much clearer picture of what the world is going to be like from now on. First, Iran asserted its control of the Strait of Hormuz by turning back two ships that didn’t take the correct route. Second, a Chinese company released an AI model that is as good as ChatGPT but a fraction of the price.
They don’t seem linked, but they are. Here’s what it means, in plain terms: the energy transition just got a double jolt, and the practical upshot is that the old rules about who controls global energy are being rewritten in real time.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of those chokepoints that sounds like a geography quiz answer but actually affects your wallet. A meaningful share of the world’s oil passes through that narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman. When Tehran decides to start turning back ships that don’t follow its preferred routing, that’s not a minor diplomatic spat.
That’s a signal about who holds leverage over global energy supplies. Control of the Strait remains one of the biggest hurdles in US-Iran talks, and this move makes clear Iran sees the waterway as a card it’s willing to play.
Think of it like this: if someone controls the only highway into town, they set the tolls. Iran just reminded everyone it holds the keys to that highway. Now, the AI piece.
A Chinese company dropped a model that matches ChatGPT’s capabilities but costs dramatically less. That’s the kind of cost reduction that changes entire industries. Cheap, powerful AI means you can optimize energy grids more efficiently, predict renewable output more accurately, and manage storage systems more intelligently.
It also means countries that couldn’t afford cutting-edge AI infrastructure suddenly have access to tools that can accelerate their own energy transitions. The connection between these two events is straightforward.
Iran’s Strait of Hormuz move puts pressure on oil-dependent economies to diversify their energy sources faster. Meanwhile, cheap AI gives them a practical tool to do exactly that. The combination creates a push-pull effect: geopolitical risk pushes countries away from fossil fuel dependence, while technological cost reduction pulls them toward cleaner alternatives.
For ordinary readers, the so-what is this: your energy bills and your country’s energy security are now being shaped by events in the Persian Gulf and in Chinese AI labs simultaneously. That’s not a coincidence.
That’s the new reality. The Iran situation isn’t new — control of the Strait has been a flashpoint for years. What’s different is the timing.
Just as the world is trying to figure out how to transition away from oil, Iran is demonstrating exactly why that transition matters. If you can’t guarantee safe passage for tankers, you can’t guarantee stable oil prices. And if you can’t guarantee stable oil prices, the economics of renewables start looking a lot more attractive.
What to watch next: whether other Chinese AI firms follow with similarly cheap models, and whether Iran’s Strait of Hormuz tactics escalate or settle into a new normal. Both will tell us how fast the energy transition actually moves from here.
