Russian forces have hit at least 50 Ukrainian cargo ships since June, killing more than 30 civilians. One strike off the coast of Odesa on July 19 killed ten people on board, and after it commercial vessels stopped sailing to Ukrainian seaports. So wrote The Conversation in mid-August, while most of the world was watching the US blockade of Iranian ports and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The timing could hardly be worse for Ukrainian farmers. More than 90 per cent of the country’s agricultural products leave through Black Sea ports.
What Ukraine feeds the world
Ukraine supplies half of the world’s sunflower seeds and sunflower oil. It ranks third in barley exports (18 per cent), fourth in corn (16 per cent) and fifth in wheat (12 per cent). Any long stoppage is felt in markets far from Odesa.
Kyiv expects a harvest of about 60 million tonnes. Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky has put the 2026-27 export forecast at only 38 to 40 million tonnes, 12 per cent below earlier estimates. One economist estimated that the blockade could cost the country 1 to 1.5 per cent of GDP by the end of the year.
Storage is the next squeeze. Once harvesting wraps up in the coming weeks, there will not be enough warehouses for the crop, and late exports mean broken contracts with foreign buyers, less money for farmers and delayed tax payments.
Looking for another way out
Ukraine has struck back at Russian ports, including two major grain terminals at Novorossiysk, home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Reuters reported early on a Friday that Kyiv had offered Moscow a deal to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea.
Meanwhile the government approved an emergency support package for farmers and asked the European Commission for more help. It also opened talks with Poland on alternative routes, though Polish farmers protested Ukrainian grain in 2023 and Warsaw later banned it. Other options include the Romanian port of Constanța, Hungary and Moldova, which said it would let 600,000 tonnes of Ukrainian grain pass through by the end of the year. Rail and road cost far more than ships, and low water on the Danube adds to the trouble.
The comparison with 2022 is obvious. Then, the United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative to restart shipping; Russia quit it a year later. The present crisis is less severe, the article noted, because Ukrainian agriculture has some room to absorb the blow, at least for now. Russia’s own grain exports could drop by more than half in August against previous years because of disruption in the Black and Azov seas.
Human rights groups have accused Russia of trying to replace Ukraine as a leading farm exporter. If Moscow rejects the truce offer, the author warned, the situation turns far more serious for Ukraine and for regional and global food security.
