Only 77 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and 13. In the same stretch of 2025, the count was 1,229, according to Lloyd’s List.
That collapse in traffic followed the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, which by mid-March had run past two weeks. Analysts now warn of the worst logistics disruption since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Carriers pull out
The U.S. Energy Information Administration puts the flow through the strait at around 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products a day, nearly $600 billion in annual energy trade. Liquefied natural gas moves the same way.
Maersk of Denmark, Mediterranean Shipping Company of Switzerland, France’s CMA CGM and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd have each suspended sailings or sent vessels elsewhere, either to safe havens or around the Cape of Good Hope. In Dubai, the busy Jebel Ali port shut for a time after debris from intercepted missiles started fires. The Economist noted that such “soft closures” can hamper operations almost as badly as a formal blockade.
What it costs
The detour is long. Going around the Cape adds 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days. Leasing a 20-foot container now costs $200 more, a 15 to 20% rise in freight rates. CMA CGM added “emergency conflict surcharges” of $2,000 to $4,000 per container, and Hapag-Lloyd set a war risk surcharge of $1,500 per standard container.
Insurance has jumped harder. Since March 5, many maritime insurers have stopped offering standard war-risk cover in the Gulf, and owners who can get it pay up to 10% of the vessel’s value. Jefferies Group analysts estimate that for a ship worth $200 million to $300 million, a new 3% premium comes to around $7.5 million, against 0.25% before the fighting. One ultra-large tanker valued at $138 million could face $14 million in insurance for a single transit.
Fuel is rising too, as crude prices lift bunker costs at major ports. Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc warned that “these increases will ultimately be passed on to customers and consumers.”
Beyond oil
The strait carries more than energy. Roughly one-third of the world’s urea and nearly half its sulfur pass through it, so delays threaten farming and chemical producers. Analysts say longer transit times could stall car assembly in Germany, the U.S. and elsewhere within two to three weeks, because plants hold too little inventory to cover late Asian components.
Shippers with urgent or high-value freight are turning to aircraft. Airfreight rates from South Asia to Europe have climbed roughly 70%.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has cautioned that the disruption shows how exposed maritime energy routes are to geopolitical tension, with consequences for supply chains and commodity markets.
