In September, Russian-flagged tankers hauled 20.6 million barrels of crude out of the country’s ports. That is the most since the G7 and the European Union decided in December 2022 that Western shippers and insurers could carry Russian oil only if it sold below an agreed price. The cap was meant to squeeze Moscow’s income without starving the world of oil. The mechanics here tell a different story.
The rule itself is simple. Western maritime services, meaning the ships, the insurance and the paperwork around them, are off limits for Russian crude sold above the threshold. The catch is that nobody forced Russia to sell through Western channels. It built its own.
A parallel fleet
S&P Global data, reported by Platts, shows how far that parallel system has grown. Tankers owned and operated outside the G7 and its allies, and uninsured by Western protection and indemnity clubs, lifted nearly 2.89 million barrels a day in September, up from 2.7 million in August. Total Russian seaborne exports climbed to 4.09 million barrels a day from 3.82 million.
State carrier Sovcomflot loaded 6.4 million barrels of the September total. Most of the rest went onto ships owned by small, little-known companies. Every one of them flew the Russian flag.
The flags are a story of their own. Cameroon and the Cook Islands were among the states that told the International Maritime Organization this year that more than 110 ships, with a combined 9.78 million deadweight tons of capacity, had been removed from their registries or were falsely claiming to belong to them. More than 100 were tankers that Western authorities had designated. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air counted 107 ships reflagged to Russia between January 2025 and June 2026, and 56% of them had earlier reported false flag information. The nonprofit’s explanation was blunt: with other registries closing the door, “many vessels turned to false flags.”
Insurance is the weak seam
Ships need protection and indemnity cover to run and to enter ports, so insurance is where the shadow fleet is most exposed. Politico reported in June that most Western insurers left Russia after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and that the fleet’s vessels now get cover from Russian insurers, shell companies and other arrangements outside normal markets. An analyst at Deft9 Solutions put the scale at “1,700 ships, making voyages back and forth,” each needing insurance every time, and said the Russians “don’t have deep pockets right now.”
Some of that risk, the analyst said, probably finds its way back into European financial markets through reinsurance. Ville Niinistö, a European Parliament lawmaker pushing for tougher action, said money is channelled through intermediaries and ultimately European and Western banks that “basically wash the insurance through these middle hands.”
Why it matters for revenue
Oil is still the Kremlin’s biggest source of war money. “They continue to receive revenue from oil, that is the main source of Russian war chest,” Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko told Politico. “The instrument is the shadow fleet.”
Brussels is trying to close the gap. A 21st sanctions package was in preparation in June, though one EU diplomat said a proposed ban on certain maritime services for Russian vessels appeared to have been pushed to the sidelines. In Washington, President Donald Trump signed legislation on Sept. 18 allowing tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five biggest buyers of Russian crude or gas, and sanctions on tankers used to dodge restrictions. Shipbroker BRS warned the measures could raise compliance risks for anyone moving Russian crude.
Freight rates add pressure on the Western side. Aframax tankers carrying Russian oil from the Baltic to India’s west coast have earned less than the Global Aframax Index since Sept. 9, according to Platts. Even so, Greek-operated tankers loaded 17.3 million barrels in September, up from 13.6 million in August.
Sources
- Russian tanker operators lift crude exports to highest level since G7 price cap | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (Platts)
- Russian shadow fleet enabled by EU-linked insurers, investigators say – POLITICO
