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US Sanctions, Strait of Hormuz closure tighten oil supply

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US Sanctions, Strait of Hormuz closure tighten oil supply

GENEVA, July 25 — The US Treasury issued a 60-day waiver on sanctions covering Iranian oil exports on June 22, 2026, as part of the initial conditions laid out in a memorandum of understanding signed in Switzerland just five days earlier. The MoU, mediated by Oman and Pakistan, established a 60-day framework for ceasefire maintenance, sanctions relief discussions, and nuclear talks. The waiver is the latest turn in a sanctions regime that has operated across successive decades.

The first US sanctions against Iran date to November 1979, imposed after the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran and the taking of 52 hostages. Those measures froze approximately $8.1 billion in Iranian assets and established a trade embargo.

They were lifted in January 1981 through the Algiers Accords. The United States reimposed and expanded sanctions in 1984, prohibiting weapon sales, and again in 1987. The UN Security Council added multilateral sanctions in December 2006 through Resolution 1737, after Iran refused to halt uranium enrichment.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, lifted most UN and multilateral sanctions in exchange for nuclear limits. The United States withdrew in May 2018 and reimposed and expanded American sanctions unilaterally.

In August 2025, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom triggered the JCPOA’s snapback mechanism, leading to the reimposition of UN sanctions on September 28, 2025. The 2025–2026 Iranian protests, triggered in part by a sanctions-induced economic collapse, were violently suppressed, provoking new Western sanctions.

A War and a Fragile Opening

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and military infrastructure. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil transit—and launching missile strikes across the region.

A ceasefire took effect on April 8, 2026. Negotiations in Switzerland produced the MoU on June 17, 2026.

The 60-day waiver issued by the Treasury on June 22 was explicitly linked to the MoU’s initial conditions. The sanctions have had significant effects on Iran’s economy, contributing to currency depreciation, high inflation, declining oil revenues, and restrictions on access to the international financial system. Iran had been the most heavily sanctioned country in the world until surpassed by Russia in 2022.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the 2026 conflict disrupted global oil shipments, and the reduction in Iranian oil exports due to sanctions tightened global supply. Analysts, humanitarian organisations, and UN experts have debated the humanitarian consequences of the sanctions, including complications for importing medicines.

These combined factors contributed to higher global diesel and fuel costs during the period. What comes next depends on the 60-day timeline established in the MoU. The framework calls for ceasefire maintenance, sanctions relief discussions, and nuclear talks—all to be addressed before the clock runs out.

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