Odds favor a quiet Atlantic this year. NOAA put the chance of a below-normal 2026 hurricane season at 55%, with a 35% chance of a near-normal one and just 10% for an above-normal year.
The agency’s forecasters expect 8-14 named storms, meaning systems with winds of 39 mph or higher. Between 3 and 6 of those should reach hurricane strength at 74 mph or higher, and 1-3 could become major hurricanes, category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA has 70% confidence in those ranges. A typical season brings 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major. The season runs June 1 to November 30.
Why the forecast leans quiet
El Niño is expected to develop and strengthen as the season goes on, and that pattern usually discourages tropical storms and hurricanes from forming. Pulling the other way, Atlantic ocean temperatures are expected to run slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. Both favor a busier year.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, was careful not to let the numbers lull anyone. “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” he said. “It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
The outlook covers overall activity only. It says nothing about where or when a storm might hit land, and NOAA stressed that it is not a landfall forecast. Graham urged people to look over their hurricane plans now rather than wait for a storm to threaten, and pointed to weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov.
New tools for forecasters
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said NOAA and the National Weather Service are ready to deliver real-time forecasts and warnings. NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs pointed to AI-based weather models, drones and next-generation satellite data as the new additions.
The National Hurricane Center is changing what the public sees. Its forecast cone graphic will now show tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas of the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. An experimental cone will also be tested that builds in uncertainty about both direction and timing of a storm’s movement. For the main Hawaiian Islands, the center will add storm surge watches and warnings plus a peak storm surge graphic on hurricanes.gov.
Behind the scenes, several research projects are moving into use:
Data from small uncrewed aircraft will feed into NOAA’s hurricane forecast model for the first time. Scientists at the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory found that adding it can improve intensity forecast accuracy by 10%.
Machine learning is now being used to quality-control data from the tail Doppler radar on NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The method collects more than 25% more meteorological data than the current approach.
NOAA’s Flood Inundation Mapping service shows emergency managers which streets and neighborhoods are likely to go underwater. It covers 60% of the U.S. population today and should reach nearly 100% by late September 2026. The Weather Prediction Center has also launched an experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard, which shows the probability of extreme rainfall a week ahead for more than 60 U.S. cities.
NOAA expects both the eastern Pacific and central Pacific basins to have active seasons. The Atlantic outlook will be updated in early August, ahead of the usual peak from mid-September through October.
