One day before SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100, it filed a routine semi-annual report with the FCC. The filing, dated July 6 Eastern Time, shows 260 Starlink satellites actively deorbited over the past six months, with another 349 retired and waiting in line. Together the 609 satellites make up 5.7% of the active constellation, according to TradingKey.
The makeup of the 260 stands out. First-generation V1 satellites accounted for 176 and V2 for 84. V2 is the more powerful design, and the market had expected it to offer better economics. Another figure in the filing pointed the other way: V2 satellites performed 142,015 propulsion maneuvers in six months, more than double the V1 count, which one report put at over 65,000.
Fuel and lifespan
TradingKey’s analysis argues that doubled maneuvering means doubled fuel consumption, and that satellites with empty tanks have shorter useful lives. SpaceX itself says its “conservative disposal strategy,” retiring satellites ahead of schedule instead of waiting for them to fail, requires “significant investment.” The analysis adds a blunt accounting point: for every day a satellite’s life is cut short, the capital spending arrives a day earlier.
At about 43 satellites a month, the 349 in the queue amount to roughly eight months of inventory. That leaves out newly launched units that end up retired early. The filing also noted two Gen1 and two Gen2 disposal failures, all caused by hardware problems. SpaceX states that its post-mission disposal success rate exceeds 99%, above the FCC’s requirement of at least 95%.
How the satellites come down
All 260 went through automated, controlled descents using onboard Hall-effect thrusters running on krypton or argon. The thrusters lower the orbit gradually until atmospheric drag finishes the job. The units retired were mainly early V1.0 and V1.5 satellites launched between 2019 and 2021, many nearing the end of an operating life of roughly 5 years or showing weaker battery or telemetry performance. With over 10,700 active Starlink satellites tracked, low Earth orbit is getting crowded, and collision-avoidance maneuvers number in the thousands.
Investors and regulators
Passive inflows from the index inclusion were expected to total about $4.3 billion. Short interest meanwhile jumped from 13% to 31% of the float within days, though TradingKey noted that this includes market maker hedging and arbitrage. Morningstar strategist Michael Field called the valuation “too high,” pointing out that Starlink trades at nearly 107 times price-to-sales against roughly 21 times for Nvidia.
For comparison, traditional operator Intelsat has long kept depreciation and amortization at 15% to 20% of revenue. Whether Starlink’s replacement rate would push its ratio higher cannot be calculated from public data, the analysis said.
The environmental question could add to the bill. Researchers at the CIRES institute at the University of Colorado have said that large-scale LEO constellations could affect the middle atmosphere, and others warn that repeated burn-ups may release aluminum oxide particles. The FCC, FAA and GAO are reviewing whether current environmental exemptions for satellite reentry should stay in place. If the FCC ever tied disposal success to spectrum renewals, or if environmental costs were imposed on constellations, the 5.7% replacement rate would stop being a depreciation line and turn into a hard expense, TradingKey said.
Sources
- Starlink Scraps 260 Satellites in Six Months: SpaceX’s "Space Depreciation" Ledger Surfaces as It Joins Nasdaq 100 Index
- SpaceX Starlink satellite deorbit surge raises big questions as 609 spacecraft are removed amid Nasdaq 100 pressure
