CAPE CANAVERAL, July 7 — The growing constellation of satellites in low-Earth orbit is prompting a closer look at how these machines are taken out of service, with SpaceX’s approach to deorbiting its Starlink fleet drawing both praise and scrutiny. The company’s end-of-life plan calls for deorbiting each satellite within five years of launch. SpaceX reports a 90% success rate for controlled reentries, and the company states that 100% of a satellite burns up upon reentering the atmosphere, leaving no debris on the ground.
In 2023, the company deorbited 120 satellites. In the first half of 2024 alone, that number climbed to 260.
These figures represent a significant acceleration in the pace of decommissioning. The U.S. Space Force currently tracks over 47,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 centimeters in orbit. For context, the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) recommends that satellites be deorbited within 25 years of the end of their mission.
SpaceX’s five-year target is considerably more aggressive than this international guideline. The encouraging part for those concerned about long-term orbital clutter is that a faster deorbit timeline means less time for a defunct satellite to become a collision risk.
SpaceX’s claim of a 90% success rate for these maneuvers is a key metric for assessing the effectiveness of its debris mitigation strategy.
Collision risk and atmospheric pollution
Critics, including the European Space Agency, argue that the sheer number of Starlink satellites increases the risk of collisions. With thousands of units in orbit at any given time, even a small failure rate in the deorbit process could result in a meaningful number of uncontrolled objects. The concern is not only about the immediate risk of impact with other satellites or the International Space Station, but also about the long-term accumulation of fragments from potential collisions.
There is also a growing discussion about the atmospheric impact of burning up satellites. Critics point out that while SpaceX’s claim of 100% burnup means no debris reaches the ground, the vaporized materials are deposited into the upper atmosphere.
The long-term environmental effects of this process are not yet fully understood, and some researchers have raised questions about the potential for these particles to affect atmospheric chemistry or contribute to pollution at high altitudes. The data so far shows a clear trend: SpaceX is deorbiting satellites at a much faster rate than the international standard recommends. Whether this pace is sufficient to offset the risks posed by the constellation’s size remains a subject of active debate among space agencies and researchers.
What to watch next
The key question moving forward is whether the 90% success rate for controlled reentries can be maintained or improved as the constellation ages and more satellites reach their end of life. The jump from 120 deorbits in all of 2023 to 260 in just the first half of 2024 suggests the company is scaling up its decommissioning operations. But the total number of Starlink satellites in orbit is also large, and the math of risk is not simple.
For now, the evidence suggests that SpaceX is following a more aggressive deorbit schedule than what international guidelines call for. The company’s approach to end-of-life disposal is an important part of the broader conversation about how to manage the growing amount of material in low-Earth orbit.
