MANILA, July 8 — For communities across Asia that rely on stable energy prices to keep their economies moving, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical — and fragile — chokepoints in the world. This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, about 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, approximately 20 million barrels of oil — about 20% of global consumption — pass through the strait daily.
That is a volume that touches nearly every household in the region, from the jeepney driver in Manila to the factory worker in Bangkok to the family cooking dinner in Jakarta. In 2024, an average of 17 million barrels per day transited the strait, down from 21 million in 2018 due to sanctions.
The major exporters using this route include Saudi Arabia, which shipped 7.5 million barrels per day in 2024; Iraq at 3.5 million; Kuwait at 2.5 million; and the United Arab Emirates at 2.8 million. These are not abstract numbers — they represent the fuel that powers homes, businesses, and transport networks across Asia.
A history of tension
Iran has threatened to close the strait in past conflicts, most notably during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, and again in 2019 after U.S. sanctions were imposed. These threats are not idle. The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, patrols the area, underscoring how seriously the international community takes any disruption to this waterway.
The consequences of a closure would be severe. A 2024 study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that a closure could increase oil prices by $30 to $50 per barrel.
For context, the price surge of nearly 6% on March 30, 2025, reflected market fears of disruption — a reminder of how quickly global markets react to any sign of instability in this region. For families across Asia, such price spikes are not just headlines. They translate directly into higher costs for transportation, food, and everyday goods.
The region’s economies, many of which are net importers of oil, are particularly vulnerable to any disruption in the flow of crude through the strait.
Limited alternatives
The strait’s depth — a minimum of 10 meters for large tankers — limits alternative routes. There is no easy way around it. Pipeline bypasses, such as the Saudi East-West Pipeline with a capacity of 5 million barrels per day, provide some relief, but they cannot replace the volume that moves through the strait itself.
For communities across the region, the message is clear: as long as the world depends on oil from the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz will remain a point of vulnerability. What happens in this narrow stretch of water affects what happens at the pump, at the market, and at home — for millions of people across Asia and beyond.
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