DUBAI, July 12 — The world’s most important oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, is back in focus today as tensions in the region simmer. Any sustained closure would send shockwaves through global energy markets, and the numbers help explain why. In 2023, roughly 17 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products moved through the narrow waterway.
That’s about 20% of all the petroleum the world consumes every day. Past disruptions offer a clear warning.
When attacks hit Saudi Aramco facilities in 2019, oil prices jumped 15% in a single session. More recently, Brent crude rose 3% on April 28, 2025, after an announcement about potential Strait closure risks.
Pipeline alternatives exist — but they can’t replace the Strait
There are workarounds. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline can move up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the UAE to the port of Fujairah, bypassing the Strait entirely. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, running from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, has capacity for 5 million barrels per day.
But here’s the catch: these pipelines have limited capacity and cannot replace the full volume that transits the Strait daily.
Strategic reserves: a buffer, not a solution
Governments keep emergency stockpiles for exactly this kind of scenario. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve held about 375 million barrels as of March 2025 — enough to cover 22 days of American imports. The International Energy Agency’s 31 member countries collectively hold 1.5 billion barrels in strategic reserves.
Those reserves are a cushion, not a cure. They buy time for diplomacy or military action to reopen the Strait, but they don’t replace the 17 million barrels per day that flow through it.
Shipping insurance costs add another layer of risk. During the 2019 Gulf tensions, war risk premiums for vessels in the Persian Gulf rose tenfold. If that pattern repeats, the cost of moving oil through the region could spike dramatically, even if the Strait itself remains technically open.
Sources
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