WASHINGTON, July 6 — The figure that matters: 30 new lithium mines, 60 new nickel mines, and 17 new cobalt mines. That is what the International Energy Agency estimates the world needs by 2030 to meet climate goals tied to the electric vehicle boom. The bottom line: global demand for lithium alone could grow 40-fold by 2040.
And the scramble for these critical minerals — lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements — is reshaping supply chains from Nevada to the Democratic Republic of Congo. By the numbers, China dominates the processing side.
It controls 60 percent of global lithium refining and 70 percent of cobalt refining. The United States, by contrast, has just one operating lithium mine — Silver Peak in Nevada. Two more projects, Thacker Pass in Nevada and Rhyolite Ridge in California, are under development.
Australia leads in raw lithium production, accounting for 55 percent of global output in 2022. Chile and Argentina hold the largest lithium reserves.
Investors will note the geographic concentration: the U.S. is racing to catch up. The Inflation Reduction Act ties tax credits for battery minerals to sourcing from the U.S. or free-trade partners. That policy is driving domestic project development, but the gap between current capacity and 2030 targets remains wide.
Cobalt’s ethical challenge
Cobalt supply is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, raising ethical concerns about child labor. That reality is pushing automakers and battery manufacturers toward alternatives. Lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, chemistry is one route.
It eliminates cobalt and nickel entirely. Recycling is another.
Both strategies aim to reduce dependence on the most problematic and concentrated supply chains.
What to watch next
The U.S. permitting process for new mines will be the bottleneck to watch. Thacker Pass and Rhyolite Ridge face legal and environmental reviews. Their timelines will determine whether domestic supply can meet the IRA’s sourcing requirements.
Meanwhile, alternative chemistries and recycling scale will test whether the market can bypass the most constrained materials. The numbers are clear: 40-fold demand growth does not leave much room for delay.
