The math is brutal. Right now, the world burns oil, gas, and coal for 80% of its transport, heating, and heavy industry. Turkey’s environment minister, Murat Kurum, is asking countries to flip that equation.
His proposal, unveiled from Ankara on June 27, sets a single hard target: raise electricity’s share of global energy from roughly one-fifth to 35% by 2035. That is ten years to almost double the grid’s load.
Kurum has a platform. Turkey hosts COP31 this year. He will co-preside the talks alongside Australian representatives.
That gives his plan a runway straight into the main negotiating room. The practical effect of hitting that 35% figure would be a real cut in greenhouse gases and a meaningful drop in fossil fuel reliance.
But the plan says nothing about how to get there. That is the part that will hit governments, utilities, and households hardest. Think about what 35% means.
Today, renewable sources already generate about one-third of the world’s electricity. That is the easy piece. The hard part is the other two-thirds of global energy that is not electricity at all.
Kurum wants to shift a big chunk of that onto the grid. That means rewiring steel mills.
That means building charging infrastructure for heavy truck fleets. That means retrofitting millions of homes to run on heat pumps instead of gas furnaces. Every one of those moves costs money.
Every one of them takes years. The timing is deliberate.
Turkey is putting this forward as host, setting the agenda before anyone else can. The proposal forces a choice on every country attending COP31. Either they sign on to a concrete, measurable commitment, or they explain why they will not.
There is no room to hide behind vague language about ambition. A number is a number. The stubborn problem remains the hard-to-abate sectors.
Kurum’s own data shows they still run on fossil fuels for roughly 80% of their energy. That is the gap he is trying to close.
But closing it means asking countries to do two things at once. First, generate far more electricity. Second, make sure that electricity comes from clean sources, not from new coal or gas plants.
If countries simply electrify using fossil power, the emissions barely budge. Here is what to watch next.
The first fight will be over the baseline. Countries will argue about what “one-fifth today” really means. Some will push for a lower starting number to make the 35% target easier to hit.
Others will demand that the target applies only to electricity itself, not to the full energy mix. Those debates will determine whether the plan has teeth or is just a headline. The second fight is about money.
Developing countries will point out that electrifying transport and industry requires massive capital. They will ask who pays.
Turkey’s plan does not answer that question. COP31 will have to. The third fight is about timing.
Ten years is short. Building a single high-voltage transmission line can take five years.
Permitting a new solar farm can take three. Retooling a cement plant can take a decade. The 2035 deadline forces countries to start now or fail.
Kurum is betting that a concrete target forces action. He may be right. But the gap between one-fifth and one-third is not just a number.
It is a measure of how fast the world can actually change. The answer will come at COP31.
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