Tariffs of up to 100 per cent are now on the table for the biggest buyers of Russian oil. President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on Friday, and the timing is awkward: Brent crude has sat above $100 for seven straight sessions.
The bottom line is that the law gives Trump a weapon he may not want to fire.
What the law allows
The act covers any of the five largest buyers of Russian crude or gas that “knowingly” book a new cargo. Tariffs could take effect 30 days after enactment. The House passed the bill 262-159 on Wednesday, after the Senate cleared it the month before.
Graham, the late Republican senator from South Carolina, died in July. He had pushed for this kind of leverage for more than a year. His original bill set a 500 per cent rate and sat stalled for 15 months. In a Fox News interview in July 2025, naming China, India and Brazil, he warned: “If you keep buying cheap Russian oil to allow this war to continue, we’re going to tear the hell out of you, and we’re going to crush your economy, because what you’re doing is blood money.”
The numbers behind India and China
By the numbers, India has leaned hardest on Russian barrels. Kpler data shows Russian crude made up 18.7 per cent of India’s imports in February, level with Saudi Arabia and Iraq. By July the share was nearly 50 per cent, or 2.96 million barrels per day, while India’s Middle East imports fell 63 per cent to 1.26 million bpd.
China’s picture is different. Its seaborne Russian imports are down 15 per cent since February, to 1.89 million bpd, yet the share of its total imports has climbed to 22 per cent from 16 per cent as Gulf supplies shrank. Another 800,000 bpd arrives by pipeline under long-term contracts, which tariffs on seaborne shipments would not touch.
Russia’s total exports were 6.79 million bpd in August, down from a peak of 8 million bpd in May, Kpler said.
Trade data adds a wrinkle. US Census Bureau figures show Americans bought $58.9 billion of Indian goods in the first seven months of this year and sold India $30.4 billion, a deficit of $28.4 billion. The gap with China over the same stretch was $91.2 billion. Electrical machinery, including smartphones assembled for American brands such as Apple, was India’s largest export category to the US in the first half of 2026, so a tariff aimed at oil could land on goods that have nothing to do with it.
A tight market, and a hesitant White House
The oil market was already strained. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 14 crossings on Friday over ten days, against nearly 100 before the war. Saudi Arabia’s East West Pipeline took damage in a drone strike last week, and its fallback route through the Bab Al Mandeb strait remains restricted by Houthi attacks.
Analysts doubt the tariffs will arrive quickly. “The White House is likely to be cautious about imposing tariffs in the near term because doing so would tighten supplies further, push oil prices higher and place additional pressure on the global economy,” said Neil Quilliam, associate fellow at Chatham House. He added that “the high price at the pump in the US has already hit Trump’s popularity rating.”
Early in the Iran war, the administration briefly let India lift Iranian crude for the first time in seven years, to keep oil moving and prices down.
Bloomberg reported this week that duties on China will be held back until Trump meets President Xi Jinping. Rachel Ziemba of Ziemba Insights said even tariffs of 20 per cent to 30 per cent “would end the truce, risk critical mineral shortages and additional export controls.” She also warned the threat could backfire: “Paradoxically, it could incentivise more purchases from Russia to get ahead of any future risks.”
Janiv Shah, vice president for oil at Rystad Energy, expects refiners to look for workarounds instead of quitting Russian crude. They will seek exemptions, cut spot purchases and demand deeper Russian discounts, he said. Rystad calls the tariffs “mildly bullish for oil prices as available volume theoretically tightens.”
India’s foreign ministry answered on September 17, saying the country “remains firmly committed to ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people” and will take “all necessary measures to protect its trade and economic interests.”
