Iran has again raised the prospect of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a threat that has rattled global energy markets and drawn comparisons to the 1987-1988 Tanker War. Tehran has made such threats before, in 2012 and 2019, but has never fully followed through.
This time, rising tensions over U.S. sanctions and the unraveling of diplomatic agreements give the warning added weight. The strait is a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, and it is the only sea route from the oil-rich Gulf states to international waters. A significant portion of the world’s seaborne oil passes through it each year.
Any prolonged closure or disruption would force tankers to reroute around southern Africa, adding significant time and cost to energy shipments. For families, the stakes are not abstract: the price of heating a home in winter or filling a car for the morning commute hangs in the balance.
The quiet anxiety of economic uncertainty follows any threat to this maritime artery. Patients in hospitals, workers commuting to jobs, and businesses trying to plan ahead all depend on the free flow of energy. The strait is a lifeline, not just a strategic chokepoint.
Iran’s Military Capabilities and Past Actions
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has demonstrated both the will and the means to harass shipping. In 2019, the IRGC seized the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero and the Iraqi-flagged tanker Al-Majeda, acts of calculated coercion that signaled Tehran’s reach. Iran has also conducted mine-laying exercises and deployed anti-ship missiles, including the Noor and Qader systems with ranges of 120-200 kilometers.
These systems are designed to strike vessels from a distance, making any transit through the strait a calculated risk. The combination of mines and missiles creates a layered threat that would challenge any naval force tasked with keeping the waterway open.
The 1987-1988 Tanker War during the Iran-Iraq War showed how quickly shipping lanes could become battlegrounds when both sides targeted oil tankers. That conflict ended with international convoys and heightened naval presence, yet the underlying tensions remained unresolved. The United States Navy escorted reflagged Kuwaiti tankers through the strait during that period, a grinding, dangerous affair that tested American naval power in confined waters. A repeat would be no less perilous.
Tensions over the strait have flared repeatedly since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Iran has long viewed the waterway as a sphere of influence and has used naval exercises, missile tests, and maritime interdiction to signal its red lines.
Diplomatic Fractures and Legal Disputes
The United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 2231 in 2015, endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, but the United States has argued it is no longer binding. This legal dispute has fractured the international consensus that once held the nuclear deal together.
The European Union, China, and Russia have criticized U.S. sanctions on Iran, creating a diplomatic landscape where allies and adversaries alike question Washington’s approach. In 2019, the EU established the INSTEX mechanism to facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran, designed to bypass U.S. financial systems and keep trade flowing despite American sanctions. Its existence is a measure of how far Europe is willing to go to preserve its own economic relationship with Tehran.
The International Maritime Organization may issue a statement on the toll’s legality; such a statement would carry moral weight but no enforcement power, though it could provide a legal benchmark for future actions by the U.S. or its allies. Diplomatic efforts have often stumbled over disputes about nuclear programs, sanctions, and regional influence.
The United Nations, European Union, and other bodies have attempted to mediate, but divisions persist between Western powers and those seeking to preserve economic ties with Iran. The U.S. Congress may hold hearings, with the House Foreign Affairs Committee chaired by Representative Michael McCaul (R-TX) as of 2025. These hearings could shape the legislative response to any escalation, with lawmakers seeking to understand what the administration plans to do to protect American interests and those of allied nations that depend on the strait.
The coming weeks will show whether diplomacy or confrontation prevails. Behind any diplomatic breakthrough lies the simple human reality that families on both sides of the world depend on the free flow of energy.
The Strait of Hormuz remains both a flashpoint and a barometer of broader conflict in the Middle East.
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