LONDON, July 7 — The story begins not with a single event, but with a shadow that has stretched across global energy markets for more than a year now. In the immediate aftermath of the May 11, 2025 attacks, Brent crude oil prices rose 3% to $85 per barrel the following day, according to Reuters. For those involved in the complex machinery of global oil supply, that single percentage point was never the real worry.
The worry was, and remains, the Strait of Hormuz. At its heart, this is a story about a narrow channel of water that carries an almost unimaginable weight.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about 17 million barrels of oil per day. That is roughly 20% of global oil consumption. A prolonged closure of that chokepoint, analysts have long warned, could push prices above $100 per barrel.
It has happened before. In 2019, after attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, the market saw exactly that kind of spike.
But oil is only part of the picture. The attacks also impact natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, sends its cargoes through the same strait.
For economies that rely on that gas for power generation and heating, the vulnerability is not theoretical. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the United States became a net oil exporter in 2019. That shift has reduced, though not eliminated, American vulnerability to disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
For other major economies, the exposure is far more acute. Asian economies like Japan, South Korea, and India are heavily dependent on Persian Gulf oil.
Japan imports 80% of its crude from the region. For those nations, every tremor in the Strait of Hormuz is felt directly in their energy security calculations. Stock markets in Asia and Europe fell on May 12, the day after the attacks.
The Nikkei 225 dropped 1.5%. The financial tremors were immediate, a reminder that confidence in stable supply chains is as valuable as the oil itself. ### Strategic reserves and the lessons of history The International Energy Agency (IEA) holds 1.5 billion barrels in strategic petroleum reserves across its member countries.
That includes 600 million barrels in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The SPR was created after the 1973 oil crisis, a direct institutional memory of what happens when supply lines are severed. Those reserves are designed to be a bridge, not a permanent solution.
They buy time. For the nations most dependent on Persian Gulf oil, the calculus is stark. Japan, South Korea, and India do not have the same domestic production cushion that the United States now enjoys.
Their strategic reserves are a lifeline, but a finite one. The question that hangs over the market is how long that lifeline would need to hold. ### What to watch next The path forward depends on the duration of any disruption.
A brief closure of the Strait of Hormuz is something the market can absorb, with reserves and price adjustments. A prolonged closure is a different order of problem entirely. The IEA’s 1.5 billion barrels of strategic reserves are substantial, but they are not infinite.
And the world has not faced a full, sustained closure of the strait in the modern era of globalized oil markets. The attacks of May 2025 did not close the strait.
But they served as a warning. For those involved in the global energy system, the question is not whether the next disruption will come. It is when.
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