TEHRAN, July 19 — Brent crude oil prices rose above $90 per barrel in early October 2024, driven by a series of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden by Houthi forces from Yemen, coupled with renewed Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. The price increase added to global inflationary pressures, with the US national average gasoline price exceeding $3.50 per gallon that same month. The Strait of Hormuz is a 33-kilometre-wide chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil — about 20 percent of global daily consumption — and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas transit the strait. Any disruption there would immediately affect global energy markets.
The US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, conducts patrols and exercises to ensure freedom of navigation through the waterway. Iran has threatened to block the strait multiple times in the past — most notably during the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — and has the capability to deploy mines, anti-ship missiles, and fast attack boats through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.
Escalating Threats
The Houthi attacks began in November 2023, escalating after the Israel-Hamas war. Over 30 vessels have been struck, forcing shipping companies to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 days and about $1 million per voyage. The combined pressure from the Houthi campaign and Iran’s renewed threats against the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent above $90 in October 2024.
Iran’s crude oil production is about 3.2 million barrels per day, with exports of about 1.5 million barrels per day, primarily to China. Saudi Arabia holds spare capacity of roughly 2-3 million barrels per day.
Historical Precedents
Previous crises have demonstrated the vulnerability of the waterway and the wider Gulf energy infrastructure. During the 1980s Tanker War, part of the Iran-Iraq War, both sides attacked oil tankers and commercial shipping. In 2019, attacks on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq and Khurais facilities cut 5.7 million barrels per day of production.
More recently, the 2020-2023 Houthi attacks on Saudi and Emirati targets marked a sustained period of disruption. OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have implemented production cuts totalling about 5.86 million barrels per day since 2022 to support prices.
Those cuts have tightened the global balance, making the market more sensitive to supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz.
Market and Policy Response
The International Energy Agency coordinates emergency stock releases among its 31 member countries, which hold about 1.5 billion barrels of strategic reserves. In past crises, such releases have tempered price spikes. The price rise above $90 in October 2024 added to global inflationary pressures, increasing costs for consumers and businesses.
As of mid-2026, the underlying factors — Iranian threats, Houthi attacks, and OPEC+ production constraints — remain on the table. No new developments have fundamentally changed the risk profile.
The US Fifth Fleet continues its patrols. The IEA members maintain their reserve stocks. The Strait of Hormuz remains a chokepoint that, if blocked, could upend a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply.
