BEIJING, July 10 — There is a quiet but determined scramble happening above our heads, and China is emerging as the second most prolific launcher of hardware into orbit. The numbers from the China National Space Administration (CNSA) are striking: 67 orbital launches in 2023, a figure only surpassed by the United States’ 108 launches. The gap is still there, but the trajectory suggests it may not stay that way for long.
For 2024, the CNSA has plans for over 100 launches. That is a significant leap, and it is not just about national prestige.
The science behind this surge is driven by practical, large-scale projects. The most ambitious is the Qianfan, or Thousand Sails, broadband network. This satellite constellation aims to deploy over 1,500 satellites by 2027, creating a mesh of connectivity that will require a relentless launch cadence to assemble.
A key piece of hardware enabling this higher tempo is the Long March 10B rocket. Its maiden flight is scheduled for 2024, launching from the Wenchang spaceport on Hainan island.
Wenchang is China’s newest coastal launch site, opened in 2014, and its coastal location offers advantages for heavier lifts. But the Long March 10B’s real trick is its recovery system. By bringing the booster back, the CNSA expects to reduce the turnaround time between missions, a critical factor if they are to hit that target of over 100 launches in a single year.
The launch infrastructure itself is spread across four main sites: Wenchang, Xichang in Sichuan, Taiyuan in Shanxi, and Jiuquan in Gansu. Each serves a different purpose. Jiuquan, for instance, is the traditional site for crewed missions, while Wenchang handles the heavier Long March 5 variants.
Tiangong, China’s space station, completed its assembly in 2022 with three modules. As of 2024, it has hosted three crewed missions.
The station remains a central piece of the program, and multiple Long March 5 missions in 2024 are slated for resupply runs and for the ongoing lunar sample-return efforts. The station is a permanent laboratory in low Earth orbit, and keeping it stocked and crewed is a steady logistical requirement. Looking further ahead, the CNSA has its sights set on the Moon and Mars.
A Chang’e 7 lunar probe is planned for 2026, continuing a series of increasingly complex robotic missions to the lunar surface. Even more ambitious is a Mars sample-return mission, currently slated for 2028.
That would be a monumental technical challenge, requiring a lander, an ascent vehicle, and an orbiter to bring pieces of the Red Planet back to Earth for the first time. The budget reflects this ambition. Government reports estimate the CNSA’s budget for 2024 at roughly $15 billion, up from $12 billion in 2023.
That is a substantial increase, and it is being spent on hardware, launch operations, and the development of new systems like the Long March 10B. The commercial sector is also getting involved. Private firms like Galactic Energy and LandSpace are conducting their own launches, adding to the overall national count.
This mix of state-led megaprojects and private enterprise is a model that has worked elsewhere, and China is clearly pursuing it with intent. ### The Mechanics of the Surge The sheer number of planned launches is not just a vanity metric. To put a constellation of over 1,500 satellites into low Earth orbit, you need a reliable, high-cadence launch system.
The Long March 10B’s recovery capability is designed to do exactly that. Instead of building a new first stage for every single mission, you reuse the most expensive part. The science behind reuse is straightforward: it cuts cost and it cuts the time between launches, because you are not waiting for a new stage to be manufactured from scratch.
The CNSA is also using its existing workhorse rockets. The Long March 5, a heavy-lift vehicle, is crucial for sending large modules to Tiangong and for the deep-space missions.
The multiple Long March 5 missions scheduled for 2024 will handle both the sample-return tasks and the station resupply. It is a system of parallel tracks: the heavy lifters for the big pieces, and the reusable medium-lifters for the high-volume satellite deployments. ### What to Watch Next The immediate milestone is the Long March 10B’s maiden flight from Wenchang. If that goes well, it will become the backbone of the Qianfan constellation deployment.
The success of that program will tell us a lot about whether the CNSA can sustain its planned launch rate. Intriguingly, the 2028 Mars sample-return mission is the kind of project that forces a space agency to develop new capabilities. It requires a lander precise enough to touch down on Mars, a rover or arm to collect samples, a small rocket to launch those samples off the Martian surface, and an orbiter to catch them and bring them home.
Each piece is a hard problem on its own. The CNSA is betting it can solve them all in sequence, building on the experience gained from the Chang’e lunar missions.
For now, the launch pads are busy, the budgets are growing, and the plans are ambitious. The world’s second-largest space program is not standing still.
