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Chokepoint Threat: Bab el-Mandeb Strait Shapes Global Oil Security

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Chokepoint Threat: Bab el-Mandeb Strait Shapes Global Oil Security

MANAMA, July 20 — The Bab el-Mandeb strait, whose Arabic name translates to “Gate of Tears,” is among the world’s most strategically vital and physically constricted maritime chokepoints. At its narrowest, the waterway between Yemen and the Horn of Africa measures roughly 20 miles across, split by Perim Island into two channels. Ships transiting the eastern channel must pass within two miles of the Yemeni coast, placing them within easy range of anti-ship missiles, fast attack boats, and naval mines.

Strategic Chokepoint

The geography has long made the Bab el-Mandeb a source of anxiety for global energy markets and naval planners. The strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and, beyond it, the Indian Ocean. Any disruption at this pinch point can cascade across international shipping lanes and energy supply chains.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, approximately 5.2 million barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products traversed the strait daily in 2022, representing roughly 7 percent of global seaborne oil trade. Saudi Arabia alone sends about 60 percent of its oil exports—some 4 million barrels per day—through the Bab el-Mandeb to reach European and Asian markets.

The record shows that the waterway has been under persistent threat from Houthi forces operating from Yemeni territory. In response to those threats, the United States has deployed naval assets including destroyers and an aircraft carrier strike group to the region, with the stated mission of ensuring freedom of navigation.

Coalition Response

Patrolling the strait is the Combined Maritime Forces, a 34-nation coalition based in Bahrain. Within that coalition, Task Force 153 is specifically dedicated to security operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The U.S. administration under President Donald Trump has continued to reinforce these deployments, maintaining a visible naval presence in the region.

Sources familiar with operational planning note that the posture reflects a strategic calculus: any successful blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb would force tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding between 10 and 15 days of transit time per voyage. Based on 2023 freight rates, that rerouting could increase shipping costs.

For the roughly 5 million barrels a day that move through the strait, the cumulative cost to global trade would be substantial. The price increase would hit not only Saudi exporters but also European and Asian refiners who depend on Red Sea routes. The timeline of threats has intensified in recent months.

Houthi forces, armed with anti-ship missiles and drone systems, have repeatedly targeted commercial vessels and naval ships in the area. The narrow eastern channel, with its two-mile proximity to the Yemeni shore, leaves little margin for evasive action.

Mines pose an additional hazard, capable of shutting the waterway entirely until cleared. For the 34 nations of the Combined Maritime Forces, the challenge is persistent. Task Force 153 continues to operate patrols, but the geography and the adversary’s asymmetric capabilities make full security difficult to guarantee.

The strait remains a point of vulnerability in global energy infrastructure—one that, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration data, shows no sign of diminishing in strategic importance.

Sources

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