BRUSSELS, July 10 — The shift is undeniable. The European Union has fundamentally rewritten its energy relationship with Russia, but the book isn’t closed yet. Before the war in Ukraine, the bloc relied on Russia for roughly 40% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil, according to the European Commission.
Those numbers have cratered, yet a few pipeline exemptions remain — and now, proposed US tariffs on Russian oil could force the EU to finally turn off the tap entirely. The transformation has been swift and brutal.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Brussels moved with a speed that surprised many. Sanctions reduced Russian oil imports by 90% by the end of that same year. A full embargo on seaborne crude oil kicked in on December 5, 2022, followed by a ban on petroleum products on February 5, 2023.
The EU also coordinated with the G7 to set a price cap of $60 per barrel for Russian oil. But the trend underneath is a story of exemptions and lingering dependencies.
Some EU countries, most notably Hungary and Slovakia, continue to receive Russian oil via pipeline under exemptions. These exemptions were designed to give landlocked member states time to adapt, but they have become a persistent crack in the bloc’s united front. The proposed US tariffs on Russian oil could now apply new pressure, potentially forcing the EU to close those remaining loopholes.
The EU has been scrambling to diversify, and the results are stark. In 2023, the United States became the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas to the EU, accounting for about 40% of imports. Norway and Middle Eastern producers have also stepped in to fill the gap.
The bloc’s energy map has been redrawn, with LNG terminals springing up and pipeline politics shifting eastward. Watch this space.
The EU has already imposed 11 packages of sanctions on Russia since 2022, targeting individuals, entities, and entire sectors. Key figures driving this strategy include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell. Their calculus now includes not just punishing Moscow, but also managing the economic blowback at home.
That blowback has been severe. The euro zone saw inflation peak at 11.5% in October 2022, driven largely by spiking energy prices.
Households and industries across the continent have felt the squeeze. The EU’s response to any new US tariffs would likely involve coordination with Washington to avoid trade disputes — a delicate dance between allies with overlapping but not identical interests. What’s changing is the pace of the final act.
The pipeline exemptions for Hungary and Slovakia are no longer just a technical footnote; they are a political vulnerability. As the US considers new tariffs on Russian oil, Brussels faces a choice: tighten the screws and risk internal friction, or maintain the status quo and invite external pressure. The trend underneath suggests the former.
The EU’s energy diversification is real, but it is not yet complete. The bloc has built new infrastructure and forged new partnerships, but the ghost of Russian energy dependence lingers in those pipeline flows.
The next move — whether from Washington or Brussels — will determine how quickly that ghost is finally exorcised.
