The Import Bill Behind the Exit
For a trading nation that mines almost none of its own fuel, the economics of quitting coal, oil and gas arrived before the politics did. Germany’s cabinet has approved a fossil fuel roadmap covering energy, industry, buildings and transport through 2045, and the case officials built for it starts with the balance of payments: net imports of fossil fuels ran to roughly 76 billion euros in 2024, according to the government. That dependence is close to total, covering around 98 percent of oil consumed, 95 percent of fossil gas and all of the hard coal Germany burns, with lignite as the one major domestic fuel left. “The money we currently spend on importing oil and gas will increasingly flow into local value creation,” said Environment Minister Carsten Schneider. Schneider also flagged the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a poor state of affairs if events there decide “whether people can still afford their daily commute to work.”
What the Roadmap Sets Out
Berlin presented the roadmap on 23 September, at the UN General Assembly held in New York, making Germany the third European country to publish one after France, which chose 2050 as its end date, and the Netherlands, whose version carries no binding end date at all. The strategy rests on two moves: electrify transport, heating and industry, and replace fossil generation with renewables. Data shows renewables covered roughly 56 percent of German electricity consumption in 2025, and the government wants at least 80% by 2030, with 2,000 additional wind turbines planned. Coal, though, still produced nearly a quarter of the country’s power in 2025, and existing law requires every plant to close by 2038 at the latest. Officials noted the government is examining whether to pull that deadline forward to 2035, while a stocktake report meant to inform that call has been postponed to 2027. New gas plants built with state money must be able to run on hydrogen and be climate neutral by 2045.
Cars, Boilers and Factory Floors
Transport and heating carry the near-term spending. Berlin has earmarked 2.8 billion euros for electric car purchases by households on lower and middle incomes, and official forecasts see every new car sold in the country running on electricity by 2035. Homes are to swap gas and oil boilers for heat pumps under subsidy; from 2029 new heating systems must draw on a rising share of climate-neutral fuels, reaching 60% by 2040. Industry is to move to electricity and hydrogen, squeeze energy use, and fall back on carbon capture where emissions cannot be avoided. Burning fossil fuels, the roadmap noted, drove over 83 percent of German greenhouse gas emissions in 2024.
Critics Want More, and Faster
Reaction split between international welcome and domestic impatience. Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s former climate envoy, called the document a beginning: “A roadmap is only the starting line,” she said, pressing for a faster and more deliberate exit paired with green electrification. Oil Change International was harsher. “Germany’s 2045 phaseout date is far too late, and is an insult to equity,” said Laurie Van Der Burg, who leads the group’s public finance work; her organisation counted $1.5 billion in German fossil fuel lending approved since Berlin joined the Clean Energy Transition Partnership, second only to Italy. At home, WWF Germany’s Fentje Jacobsen pointed to the gap between diplomacy and lawmaking: “This once again highlights the glaring discrepancy between Germany’s international stance and its domestic actions,” she said, arguing the text merely restates measures already decided. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition backs new gas extraction, has approved state backing for new gas-fired power plants, weakened heating exit rules and lobbied for laxer EU car emission limits.
A Demand Signal for Suppliers
Analysts still see market weight in the combined plans. Linda Kalcher of Strategic Perspectives noted that Germany, France and the Netherlands together account for around 46% of EU GDP, and called their joint shift “a powerful signal” to oil and gas suppliers watching European demand fall. Germanwatch’s Petter Lyden urged followers abroad: “We expect other countries to now present their roadmaps as well,” he said, pointing to the COP31 summit in Turkey in November. The global track record is rough; a worldwide roadmap push collapsed at COP30 in Belem last year when oil producers blocked it in the closing hours, and roughly 60 governments gathered in Santa Marta, Colombia to restart the effort outside the formal talks. On Germany’s own books, the binding dates remain climate neutrality by 2045 and a coal exit no later than 2038, with any move to 2035 waiting on the postponed stocktake due in 2027.
Sources
- Germany Publishes Fossil Fuel Roadmap to Quit Coal, Oil and Gas
- Germany presents fossil fuel transition plan, reaffirms 2045 climate target
