Brent crude stood at $123.10 a barrel on June 21, up 42.4% over the previous 60 days. The high for that stretch reached $135.51, according to Energy Information Administration daily reporting.
Behind the climb is a chokepoint. The Iran-Israel conflict that began on February 28, 2026 triggered a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 17 million barrels per day, about 20% of global seaborne oil, normally pass. An estimated 4-6 mbpd dropped out of accessible supply. The International Energy Agency called the result the largest supply disruption in oil market history, and tanker insurance rates through the strait jumped 10-15x, Lloyd’s of London reported.
The speed was startling. Brent had traded near $68 in late February. By mid-March it peaked close to $126, a gain of about 85% in under three weeks.
A thin cushion
Few buffers remain. OPEC’s spare capacity is put at 3-4 mbpd, the only significant protection against another shock. Saudi Arabia is holding output 1.5 mbpd under capacity through voluntary cuts, and OPEC+ as a whole controls about 40% of global crude production. OPEC forecasts demand growth of 1.8 mbpd for 2026, while the IEA put early-year demand at about 103 mbpd.
Commercial inventories in the OECD sit below the five-year average, based on EIA weekly data. American strategic reserves were drawn down in 2022 and only partly refilled.
Sanctions already touch a large share of supply. Restrictions on Russian crude (the G7 price cap is $60/bbl), Iranian oil and Venezuelan exports together affect around 15 mbpd. Russia has redirected cargoes to India and China at a discount of $30-40/bbl against Brent, so those measures have reshaped trade flows without taking barrels off the market entirely.
Who pays
The International Monetary Fund estimates that a sustained $10 per barrel rise in crude cuts global GDP growth by about 0.15 percentage points. Net importers such as most of Europe, Japan, South Korea and India face a worse current account and imported inflation. Exporters including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway and Canada collect more revenue but risk Dutch disease.
American drivers feel it quickly. The EIA says every $10/bbl in crude adds about $0.25 per gallon at the pump, with changes usually arriving within 1-2 weeks. Crude makes up about 54% of the pump price; refinery margins, taxes and distribution cover the other 46%.
The United States uses about 20 million barrels of petroleum per day, roughly 20% of world demand. It is also the largest producer at 13.2 mbpd, yet it still imports a net 2.5 mbpd or so.
Militaries are exposed too. The U.S. Department of War burns approximately 85 million barrels a year, per the Defense Logistics Agency, so each $10/bbl increase adds roughly $850 million to the Pentagon’s fuel bill.
