Russia’s Urals crude started the year at $40 per barrel or lower. By the second quarter it had climbed to $82, about one and a half times the price a year earlier. For the Kremlin’s war budget, that swing has bought time.
The figures, as relayed by RBC-Ukraine from a Fox News report, show how much. Russia’s economy took in about $30 billion in additional export revenue across April to June. In July, budget revenue from the oil and gas sector reached 934 billion rubles, the highest in more than a year.
What the extra money does
Russia’s economic troubles have not yet forced the Kremlin to cut spending on the war in Ukraine. The extra oil income let it narrow the budget deficit and pushed back the point at which it might face a harder choice about continuing.
A Fox News source believes the money will let Vladimir Putin keep up the campaign at least until next spring, or for “another season”. A European intelligence official was blunt about the limits. “It doesn’t solve the fundamental economic problems in Russia,” the official said, adding that on budget grounds Putin is currently “not under pressure”.
The deficit is still large
The catch is the shortfall. Russia’s Finance Ministry reports a federal budget deficit of 6.5 trillion rubles for January through July. That is 70% more than the amount planned for the whole of 2026. Sberbank forecasts the deficit could reach 7 trillion rubles by year end.
So higher prices have not erased the problem. They have given the Kremlin more time to finance it.
How much pressure would it take
Elina Rybakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, also doubts the current economy will push Putin to end the war. Economic pressure would have to get much stronger, she said, and she described a scenario in which oil stayed around $35-$40 per barrel for a year. That looks unlikely for now, the report says, because the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran is supporting higher prices.
Ukraine’s strikes on refineries
Ukraine is working to shorten that runway by other means. RBC-Ukraine reports that in recent months Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out up to 40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. About one-third of the country’s residents have faced fuel shortages, it says, and Russia has begun turning to “gray” schemes to process petroleum products.
