Crude oil closed in on $104 a barrel on Friday, October 30, its highest level since it touched a four-month high of $105.83 on September 15. Trading Economics put the price at 102.95 USD/Bbl, up 0.93% on the day.
The trigger was a run of news about Iran. Reports said a senior US military commander had briefed President Donald Trump on options for renewed strikes, and Trump has repeatedly threatened more military action. Tehran confirmed it had received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance meant to revive peace negotiations. It signalled all the same that it would not soften its position on ending the conflict.
Two separate tanker incidents sharpened tension around the Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian refinery in the Samara region, and Moscow launched another overnight attack on Ukraine. Those events added to worries about the security of global supply.
The numbers
Crude gained 15% in October. Over the past month the price rose 10.85%, and it stands 68.83% above its level a year earlier. The all-time high is 147.27, set in July of 2008.
Trading Economics’ own models and analyst expectations see crude at 106.90 USD/BBL by the end of the quarter. Its 12-month estimate is 123.86.
One caveat applies to all of these figures. They come from trading in a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark, not from official West Texas Intermediate settlement prices. Trading Economics says official WTI futures data, which are delivered at the Cushing Hub in Oklahoma with each contract covering 1,000 barrels, should be taken from NYMEX.
