Oil was on course for its sharpest weekly gain since mid-July on September 4, Reuters reported, as investors weighed fresh danger to Middle East supplies. Brent crude futures added 54 cents, or 0.6%, and stood at $96.06 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 80 cents, or 0.9%, to $92.10. Over the week Brent was up 7.6% and WTI up 10.4%.
Behind the climb is the fighting between the United States and Iran. This week’s American strikes on Iran left dozens of people dead or wounded. No clashes between the two countries had been fiercer since July. The war itself started with U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February, and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz again warned that Israel would “paralyze” Iran’s military and civilian infrastructure.
Analysts and diplomacy
ANZ analysts raised their near-term Brent forecast to $95 a barrel and said prices could go higher if the conflict in the Middle East widens. They described a market in transition. “Elevated inventories helped cushion the initial supply shock, but the challenge now is to keep the market balanced as those reserves decline,” the analysts said.
No talks look close. On September 3, U.S. Vice President JD Vance told reporters that Washington would not negotiate until Iran quits attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Two things held prices back. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the road to a deal on Ukraine was still open. And Iraq is shipping more crude: two Iraqi energy officials put August exports at about 2.34 million barrels per day, against roughly 1.35 million in July, with a further rise expected in September.
How the summer went
The jump follows weeks of swings. On July 22, President Donald Trump said that for every vessel Iran attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. would take out a bridge or a power plant. That night, U.S. forces carried out their 12th consecutive overnight attack on Iran. By July 23, oil had reached its highest level in more than six weeks as tensions also rose in the Red Sea.
Later moves were mixed. Prices fell on July 30 despite renewed escalation, and on August 21 they edged lower even as the war, which had reached a stalemate, continued to disrupt Middle East supplies. On August 27 they fell again on expectations that talks between Iran and Oman would help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
