WASHINGTON, July 14 — The Artemis program, NASA’s ambitious push to return humans to the Moon, now faces a competitive dynamic between its two biggest contractors that could reshape how the agency gets cargo and crew to the lunar surface. Established in 2017, the program has awarded contracts totaling over $20 billion to multiple companies. SpaceX received $3.2 billion for its Starship lunar lander.
Blue Origin won $10 billion for cargo delivery services. Dynetics got $1.5 billion for a separate lander concept.
The original target for a crewed lunar landing was 2025; that has since been revised to 2028 due to delays.
Starship delays, New Glenn’s rise
Here’s the practical upshot of where things stand now. SpaceX’s Starship program has hit delays. Those delays could force NASA to rely on Blue Origin’s cargo services for early Artemis missions — a scenario that would have seemed unlikely just a couple of years ago.
Blue Origin recently had success with its New Glenn rocket and secured that $10 billion cargo delivery contract. Now NASA faces pressure to ensure both companies meet their milestones.
The next key date for Starship is the FAA’s decision on its return to flight, expected by December 2025. Blue Origin, meanwhile, plans a second New Glenn test flight in January 2026. Think of it like a two-engine car where one engine has been sputtering.
NASA can’t afford to put all its eggs in one basket, and the competitive landscape is giving the agency options it didn’t have before.
What it means for SpaceX’s bottom line
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, in a report on October 11, 2025, predict that SpaceX’s valuation could recover to $150 billion if Starship completes a successful orbital test by mid-2026. That’s a big “if” that hinges on the FAA’s regulatory timeline and SpaceX’s ability to solve technical problems. The competitive landscape may also affect Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service, which generated $4.2 billion in revenue in 2024.
If Starship keeps slipping, it could slow the deployment of newer Starlink satellites that were designed to launch on the big rocket.
What to watch next
The FAA’s decision on Starship’s return to flight, expected by December 2025, is the next major regulatory milestone. If that goes smoothly, Blue Origin’s second New Glenn test flight in January 2026 will test whether the company can deliver on its $10 billion contract. In plain terms, the Artemis program is entering a phase where competition between two of the world’s richest men — Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk — could determine whether NASA meets its 2028 lunar landing target or faces further delays.
The agency has spread its bets, but the clock is ticking.
