WASHINGTON, July 21 — A $30 billion procurement for national security launches has set the stage for one of the most consequential contests in the space industry’s history, drawing established defense giants and brash newcomers alike into a high-stakes battle for Pentagon favour. The U.S. Space Force’s Phase 3 acquisition cycle is the prize. At stake are contracts that will shape the country’s orbital infrastructure for years, and the field of contenders reflects a sector transformed by private capital and rapid innovation.
The incumbent, United Launch Alliance — a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin formed in 2006 — brings decades of experience and a proven track record with its Atlas V and Delta IV Heavy rockets. Those vehicles have been the workhorses of national security launches, but the Atlas V’s reliance on Russian RD-180 engines has long been a geopolitical vulnerability.
Against this backdrop, ULA has developed the Vulcan Centaur, which first flew in January 2024, marking a strategic shift away from Russian hardware.
A Changing of the Guard
The challenger that transformed the market is SpaceX, founded in 2002 and certified for National Security Space Launch missions since 2015. Its reusable Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets have already won several contracts under Phase 2, and its government launch revenue reached approximately $2 billion in 2023, according to public filings. That sum eclipses ULA’s government revenue of about $1.5 billion in the same period, underscoring how the competitive landscape has tilted.
Blue Origin, founded in 2000, is another contender with deep pockets and a heavy-lift ambition. The company received a $3.4 billion contract from the Space Force in 2020 to develop its BE-4 engine and launch system for the New Glenn rocket.
Designed to lift 45 metric tons to low Earth orbit, New Glenn has yet to fly as of 2024, but its inclusion in the Phase 3 competition signals the Pentagon’s willingness to invest in new capacity. A younger player, Relativity Space — founded in 2015 — is developing the fully reusable Terran R rocket using 3D-printing technology. The company targets its first flight in 2026, aiming to leapfrog traditional manufacturing methods.
In the corridors of the industry, Relativity’s approach is seen as a bet on additive manufacturing’s ability to slash production time and cost, though the rocket remains unproven.
The Wider Picture
The procurement also affects other defense contractors. Northrop Grumman previously offered the Omega rocket but suspended its development in 2020, leaving it on the sidelines for this round. What is at stake goes beyond the direct contracts.
The Space Force’s competitive selection process for Phase 3 is expected to award multiple contracts, with SpaceX and ULA likely to share a significant portion, according to industry observers. The winners will shape not only the logistics of national security launches but also the industrial base that supports them.
For Europe, watching from across the Atlantic, the consolidation of U.S. launch capacity carries implications for transatlantic cooperation and access to strategic orbit. The next few months will bring clarity on which companies secure a foothold in this lucrative market. With a $30 billion purse and the future of America’s space architecture on the line, the contest is far from over.
