Brent crude has climbed above $90 per barrel as military escalation in the Middle East disrupts ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Its assessment was published on March 10, 2026.
The strait carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers pass through it as well. UNCTAD said the effects reach far beyond the region, touching energy markets, maritime transport and global supply chains.
Costs that travel
Oil is only the first link. Freight rates, bunker fuel prices and insurance premiums are all rising, UNCTAD said, and together with dearer energy and fertilizer they may push up food costs. The agency pointed to the people with the least room to absorb that: “particularly the most vulnerable.”
It drew a comparison with earlier shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic and the opening of the war in Ukraine both showed how a break in energy, transport or farm inputs can spread across linked markets.
Poorer economies exposed
The timing is awkward. Many developing economies are already struggling to service their debt, which leaves little fiscal space for a new price shock. UNCTAD warned that rising energy, transport and food bills could strain public finances and household budgets, and could complicate progress toward sustainable development. Countries that depend heavily on imported energy, fertilizers and staple foods face the sharpest pressure.
How much damage the global economy takes will depend on how long the disruption lasts, how intense it gets and how widely it spreads, the agency said. It called for continued monitoring of the risks.
Its recommendations were direct: de-escalation, protection for maritime transport, ports, seafarers and other civilian infrastructure, and secure trade corridors in line with international law and freedom of navigation.
