Crude oil closed in on $104 a barrel on Friday, its highest level since the four-month peak of $105.83 reached on September 15. The cause was familiar: nervous traders pricing in the chance that Iran and the United States are heading back toward open conflict.
The latest push came from Washington. A senior US military commander has briefed President Donald Trump on options for fresh strikes against Iran, according to reports, and Trump has more than once threatened further military action. Tehran confirmed that it had received a letter from US Vice President JD Vance meant to revive peace talks. It did not follow that with any softening. Iran signalled it would hold its position on how the conflict should end.
Hormuz back in the frame
Shipping added to the unease. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz rose after two separate tanker incidents, which kept alive worries about supply disruption in the waterway that carries so much of the Gulf’s exports.
The war in Ukraine added its own pressure. Ukrainian forces reportedly hit a Russian refinery in the Samara region, and Moscow launched another overnight attack on Ukraine.
The numbers
Trading Economics put the contract-for-difference price of crude at $102.95 a barrel on October 30, up 0.93% on the previous day. That is a gain of 10.85% across the past month and 68.83% over the past year. Crude rose 15% over the course of October alone.
The all-time high is $147.27, set in July 2008. The price is some way below that.
Trading Economics expects crude to trade at $106.90 by the end of the quarter, and its models point to $123.86 twelve months from now. The firm notes that its figures come from over-the-counter and CFD instruments, are a general market reference, and are not official WTI prices. Official settlement data for WTI futures, which are delivered at the Cushing Hub in Oklahoma, has to come from NYMEX.
