MANAMA, July 8 — The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz each day. That amounts to approximately 17 million barrels per day traversing the 33-kilometer-wide waterway between Iran and Oman. The strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, and its minimum depth of 10 meters for large tankers makes it particularly susceptible to disruption.
The record shows the strait has been targeted before. In 2019, Iran seized several tankers, disrupting flows.
Such actions introduce volatility into global energy markets. The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, conducted patrols in the strait during the 2020-2023 period to ensure freedom of navigation. Those operations were part of a broader effort to keep the waterway open for commercial shipping.
Any significant disruption to traffic through the strait carries serious economic consequences. The EIA data indicates that a blockage or sustained interference could spike oil prices by 30 to 50%.
That pattern was observed during 1973 and 1990.
Current Crisis
Sources familiar with the situation describe the present crisis as a renewed threat to this critical chokepoint. The strait’s geography makes it vulnerable to mines or blockades, and the shallow depth restricts the maneuvering options for large tankers. The 33-kilometer width of the waterway means that even a single disabled vessel or a minefield could effectively shut down transit for days or weeks.
Oil markets are watching closely.
Historical Precedent
The 1973 oil embargo saw prices quadruple over several months. The 1990 spike, triggered by the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, pushed crude prices from roughly $15 to $40 per barrel. In both cases, the Strait of Hormuz was not directly blocked, but the threat of disruption contributed to the price surge.
The 2019 tanker seizures by Iran demonstrated how quickly the strait can become a flashpoint. Those incidents did not lead to a full blockade, but they underscored the fragility of the chokepoint.
What to Watch
The current situation is unfolding against this backdrop. The Fifth Fleet’s previous patrols may serve as a template for any new response, but the timeline of the present crisis remains unclear. Oil markets are pricing in the possibility of a 30 to 50% price increase, according to the EIA data.
That would represent a significant shock to the global economy, particularly for nations heavily dependent on Persian Gulf crude. The depth of the strait, at a minimum of 10 meters for large tankers, means that even a limited disruption could have outsized effects.
Analysts are watching for any signs of Iranian naval activity or mine-laying operations in the waterway. The coming days will determine whether the current crisis escalates into a full blockade or is resolved through diplomatic or military means. The record shows that the Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint before, and the stakes are no lower this time.
