WASHINGTON, July 11 — The shift is quietly underway. Internal administration discussions, ongoing since late February 2025, have been laying the groundwork for a significant escalation in economic pressure on Moscow. The Trump administration is reportedly in the early stages of developing a plan to impose heavy tariffs on Russian oil, a move designed to create leverage to end the war in Ukraine.
The proposed policy is still taking shape, but the mechanisms are well-established. According to sources familiar with the planning, the first step would be a formal policy announcement, likely through a presidential memorandum or executive order.
Such an order would cite national security concerns under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. Alternatively, the administration could invoke the Trade Act of 1974. There is also a legislative path.
The administration could seek a bill through Congress, which would require drafting, committee hearings, and votes in both the House and Senate. That route would take months.
An executive action, by contrast, could move in weeks. The timeline under discussion, according to internal planning, points to a potential announcement as early as March 2025, with implementation within 30 to 90 days. The plan would likely be phased to allow global markets time to adjust.
The administration would need to engage with allies, particularly the European Union, which has already banned most Russian oil imports. The bigger challenge is engaging major buyers like India and China. The war has taken a staggering toll.
Estimates from late 2024 placed Ukrainian military deaths at over 100,000 soldiers and Russian military deaths at over 60,000 soldiers. The administration’s ultimate goal, according to sources, is to use the threat of tariffs, and their potential reduction or removal, as a bargaining chip in ongoing peace negotiations.
The tariffs could be lifted as part of a ceasefire agreement. If the administration chooses the executive order route, the announcement could come within weeks of the internal discussions that began in late February 2025. If it goes through Congress, the timeline stretches into months, with hearings, amendments, and floor votes adding layers of delay.
For the European Union, the move would align with existing policy. Brussels has already banned most Russian oil imports.
The bigger diplomatic lift will be with India and China. The phased approach under discussion would give those buyers time to find alternative suppliers. It would also give global energy markets time to adjust to the sudden removal of a major supplier from the U.S. market.
The administration is reportedly considering a 30-to-90-day implementation window, during which the tariffs would ramp up gradually rather than hitting all at once. The human cost of the war is the backdrop for all of this. Over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 60,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, according to estimates from late 2024.
The administration’s stated goal is to create the conditions for a negotiated end to the fighting, and oil tariffs are the latest tool in that effort. The tariffs could be reduced or lifted as part of a peace deal.
Whether that calculation is correct remains to be seen, but the planning is underway.
