Three people in Haiti were dead before Tropical Storm Melissa had even reached hurricane strength. Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency confirmed that a landslide in Fontamara, a commune of Port-au-Prince, killed two on Thursday. A day earlier, during flooding in Marigot, a falling tree killed a man in his 70s.
The worst is still forecast to come. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Melissa is expected to intensify rapidly into a major hurricane, Category 4 or higher, over the weekend. The agency expects it to become a hurricane by Saturday and to reach Category 4 with 130-mph winds as early as Sunday night. At the time of the latest update, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, and tropical-storm-force winds reached 140 miles out from its center.
Where the storm sits
Melissa was about 235 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince and about 155 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Hurricane Hunters found it drifting northwestward, with a turn toward the west forecast for Saturday. Computer models have grown more consistent: they track the storm south of Jamaica and Haiti, which would leave both countries on its stronger side for several days. After that, most models turn it north, some across Jamaica and Cuba, others closer to Hispaniola before it heads out to sea.
The NHC put the rain at 8-14 inches, with locally higher totals, across southern parts of the Dominican Republic, southern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Sunday. Depending on track, strength and speed, isolated areas could collect several feet into early next week. Forecasters fear flash floods, mudslides and landslides on high ground. The FOX Forecast Center said parts of Jamaica could see more than 2 feet of rain through next Wednesday.
“Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion,” the NHC warned, adding that damaging winds and flooding rain could reach Jamaica by Friday or Saturday.
Jamaica braces
The Meteorological Service of Jamaica issued a Hurricane Warning on Friday night. The government opened its emergency operation center and said generators, medical supplies and fuel were in place. Matthew Samuda, the Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change, told a Friday press conference that more than 50 generators were ready. His target: within 72 hours of a storm, 80% of NWC customers would have water again. “This is a marked difference from the last time around,” he said.
Airports will probably close once conditions start to deteriorate, officials said, and all schools are moving to remote learning. The Jamaica Met Service pointed out that soils are already saturated from earlier rain, which raises the mudslide risk.
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross called it a potentially historic threat for the island. “It’s increasingly likely that Jamaica will experience long-duration impacts from likely-Hurricane Melissa like no storm they’ve encountered in modern times,” he said. Even if the strongest winds stay offshore, he added, three or four days of heavy rain and gusty winds look likely. He described the warm Caribbean water south of Jamaica as “extraordinarily warm” and said the consensus track poses an extreme threat to the Kingston area from rain, wind and storm surge.
In Kingston, FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray saw residents fishing on a calm Saturday morning. “There is some nervousness going on, but people are trying to begin their Saturday as if nothing is happening,” he said, adding that he was not sure people fully grasped what was coming.
Elsewhere in the region
Officials in the Dominican Republic suspended work in major cities, Santo Domingo among them, from 1 p.m. local time Wednesday through Thursday. Puerto Rico should stay on the storm’s edge but is likely to get a steady feed of moisture, and residents were told to watch National Weather Service flood alerts from San Juan. Swells from Melissa will also reach Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba over the next few days, bringing large waves and rip currents to beaches.
