A 20% Levy on Global Energy Transit
The toll would apply to every cargo vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including shipments from U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf. Unlike the sanctions regime Trump imposed during his first term, this is a tariff — a lever he has signaled he would use to force Iran back to negotiations on nuclear and regional issues. The strait carries a substantial portion of seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas to markets in Europe and Asia, and any prolonged disruption could trigger widespread supply shortages and economic shockwaves far beyond the region. Trump’s proposal echoes the “maximum pressure” strategy he directed at Iran during his presidency, which began with the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018 and the reimposition of sanctions on Tehran. The former president’s business background — his net worth stands at $2.5 billion, according to Forbes in 2024, derived from real estate, licensing, and media ventures — has long informed his transactional approach to foreign policy, including the “America First” doctrine that guided his administration from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021.
A History of Confrontation with Iran
Trump’s record with Iran is defined by escalation. He withdrew the United States from the JCPOA, which he had repeatedly criticized as a “disaster” that gave Iran billions in sanctions relief without permanently blocking its path to a nuclear weapon. The most dramatic confrontation came on January 3, 2020, when Trump ordered a drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, a move that brought the two countries to the brink of open conflict. The Strait of Hormuz proposal marks a new phase in that pressure campaign. Rather than directly targeting Iranian financial institutions or oil exports, the toll would tax global trade transiting the strait in an effort to punish Iran for its regional activities. Historically, the waterway has been one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. It remained open during past Middle East conflicts, but its vulnerability to blockades or mining has been a recurring concern, particularly in the context of U.S.-Iran relations. Iran has periodically threatened to disrupt shipping in response to geopolitical pressures.
A Campaign Proposal with Real-World Consequences
Trump is currently a candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, and his campaign has centered on restoring the policies of his first term, including the maximum pressure strategy against Iran. He was impeached twice by the House of Representatives — first in December 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress related to Ukraine, and second in January 2021 for incitement of insurrection after the January 6 Capitol attack. The Senate acquitted him both times. The Strait of Hormuz toll announcement came roughly two weeks before the current date, and it has not been implemented. But for markets watching the 2024 race, the figure that matters is the 20 percent levy on one of the world’s most strategic waterways. The strait is bordered by Iran to the north and the Musandam Peninsula of Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. It serves as the sole sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, making its stability essential for regional and international commerce. If Trump returns to office, global shipping costs through the Gulf could spike overnight, a direct hit on the chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum transit.
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