CARACAS, July 12 — The Biden-era sanctions architecture that crippled Venezuela’s state oil company is being rewritten by the Trump administration, and the calculus for global energy markets is shifting accordingly. A new executive order places the power to grant oil-import licenses directly in the hands of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaling a strategic pivot in how Washington manages the leverage it holds over PDVSA. The numbers tell a stark story of collapse.
PDVSA produced an average of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2014, placing it among the world’s top oil exporters. By 2024, that figure had cratered to approximately 400,000 barrels per day, according to data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The broader stakes involve the largest proven oil reserves on the planet — Venezuela holds an estimated 303 billion barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration as of 2023.
The Sanctions Timeline
The decline did not happen in a vacuum. US sanctions began in August 2017 under Executive Order 13808, which prohibited US banks from purchasing new Venezuelan debt. That was the opening move.
In January 2019, Washington imposed a full oil embargo targeting PDVSA, freezing the company’s US assets and barring all transactions. The embargo was tightened further in 2020 and again in 2023.
Mismanagement and chronic underinvestment inside Venezuela compounded the external pressure. The result is a national oil company that once rivaled the majors now producing at a fraction of its former output.
What the New Order Changes
The new executive order gives Secretary Rubio the authority to grant licenses for oil imports, potentially allowing some companies to resume operations in Venezuela. Strategically, this concentrates decision-making in a single cabinet official rather than leaving it diffused across multiple agencies. What this signals is a more flexible — and arguably more transactional — approach to the Venezuela file.
For international oil firms watching from the sidelines, the question is whether the Rubio license mechanism will unlock meaningful volumes or remain a narrow instrument. The broader stakes are clear: any significant return of Venezuelan crude to global markets would alter supply dynamics at a moment when the Trump administration is pressing for lower energy prices.
Looking Forward
The administration is betting that calibrated sanctions relief can achieve what blanket embargoes have not: forcing political change in Caracas while offering commercial incentives to select players. Whether the calculus holds depends on how many licenses Secretary Rubio issues — and to whom. The chessboard is being reset, and PDVSA’s stranded reserves are the prize.
