BEIJING, July 10 — China is pressing ahead with a methodical campaign to certify its next-generation Long March 10 rocket for crewed missions, setting the stage for a planned lunar landing by the end of this decade, according to state and international reports. The Long March 10B completed its maiden flight on June 23, 2024, and Chinese space officials have outlined a series of test flights over the following two years to clear the rocket for operational use.
The Long March 10 series comes in two variants: the crewed Long March 10, designed to carry up to seven astronauts to the Tiangong space station, and the Long March 10B, a cargo variant. Tiangong has been continuously occupied since June 2021, marking a sustained human presence in low Earth orbit for China.
The China National Space Administration (CNSA) announced in 2023 that a crewed lunar landing is the next major goal, with a target date of 2030. The account indicates the Long March 10 is expected to be used for lunar missions, possibly in conjunction with the Long March 9 super-heavy rocket, which remains under development. The Long March 9 first launched in 2016 as a heavy-lift variant, and officials said it is being upgraded to a reusable design with a payload capacity of 150,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit.
A history of incremental steps
China’s lunar program has followed a steady, incremental path. The Chang’e 6 mission, launched in 2024, was designed to collect samples from the far side of the Moon. That mission builds on earlier Chang’e probes that orbited and landed on the lunar surface.
Looking further ahead, China and Russia have jointly planned the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), with a target completion date of 2035. Chinese officials said the recovery technology being developed for the Long March 10B will also be applied to the Long March 8R, a reusable variant of the Long March 8, which had its first flight in 2020.
Regional context and strategic implications
For observers in the Middle East and across the developing world, China’s lunar ambitions carry a familiar weight. Beijing has positioned itself as an alternative partner for nations wary of Western-dominated space frameworks, offering launch services and scientific collaboration through the ILRS and other initiatives. Iran, for its part, has sought closer ties with China’s space program in recent years, though concrete joint missions have yet to materialise.
The Islamic Republic’s own satellite launches have faced repeated failures and international sanctions that limit access to advanced components. The United States, under the current administration, maintains its own Artemis program for lunar exploration, with a focus on returning astronauts to the Moon and building a permanent presence at the lunar south pole.
American officials have expressed concern about the pace and secrecy of China’s military-civilian space enterprise, though the two nations continue to share orbital data through established channels. What comes next for China’s lunar program will depend on the successful completion of the Long March 10 test campaign. If the certification proceeds on schedule, the first crewed lunar mission could launch before the end of the decade, potentially putting Chinese astronauts on the Moon for the first time.
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