BRUSSELS, July 10 — Against the backdrop of a grinding war in Ukraine that has reshaped global energy markets, the United States and its allies are now considering a significant escalation in economic pressure on Moscow: tariffs on third-country purchases of Russian oil. The proposed tariffs would target nations that continue to buy Russian crude, a gap in the existing sanctions architecture that has allowed Moscow to maintain substantial revenue streams despite previous restrictions.
The plan remains under discussion, but its mere emergence signals a growing frustration in Western capitals with the limits of the current approach. What is at stake is nothing less than the financial engine of Russia’s war effort.
Oil and gas revenues have long been the Kremlin’s primary source of hard currency, and Western policymakers have spent much of the past four years trying to choke that flow without triggering a global energy crisis. The United States imposed its first sanctions on Russian oil on March 8, 2022, banning imports of Russian crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal. That ban was part of a broader sanctions package that also targeted Russian banks, including Sberbank and VTB, and restricted exports of technology to Russia.
It was an early, decisive move by Washington to cut off a key revenue stream. The European Union followed with its own ban on Russian seaborne crude oil, effective December 5, 2022, and a ban on refined petroleum products, effective February 5, 2023.
These measures were carefully timed to allow European refiners and utilities to find alternative suppliers, but they also created a patchwork of restrictions that left room for third-country intermediaries. In the corridors of power in Brussels, London, and Washington, the question has become whether the existing measures are sufficient. The G7 countries also imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian crude oil on December 5, 2022, aimed at reducing Russia’s revenue while maintaining global supply.
The mechanism was clever in theory: by capping the price at which Russian oil could be sold using G7 shipping and insurance services, it sought to keep Russian barrels flowing to global markets while limiting the Kremlin’s profits. The results have been mixed. In 2023, Russia’s oil export revenue fell by about 20% compared to 2022, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
That is a real, measurable decline. But it is not the collapse some had hoped for.
Moscow has adapted, building a shadow fleet of tankers and securing alternative insurance and shipping arrangements, often through Chinese and Indian intermediaries. The wider picture is one of a global energy market that has proven more resilient and more complex than sanctions architects anticipated. Russia has found willing buyers in India and China, both of which have ramped up purchases of discounted Russian crude.
The price cap has had some effect — Russian oil has traded below the $60 threshold for extended periods — but it has not forced Moscow to the negotiating table. The proposed tariffs would be a new escalation, targeting third-country purchases of Russian oil, which were not covered by previous sanctions.
This would represent a significant departure from the current approach. Instead of capping the price at which Russian oil can be sold, the United States would effectively penalize any nation that buys it, regardless of the price. The mechanism would be tariffs, applied at the border on goods imported from countries that continue to purchase Russian crude.
The legal and diplomatic hurdles are substantial. Such tariffs would need to be carefully calibrated to avoid punishing allied nations that have already reduced their Russian oil purchases to near zero. They would also need to navigate the complex web of World Trade Organization rules and existing trade agreements.
In the corridors of European capitals, the reaction has been cautious. Several EU member states have expressed concern that unilateral US tariffs could disrupt global trade flows and create new tensions with key partners in Asia and the Middle East.
The European Commission has not yet taken a formal position, but diplomats say the proposal is being studied carefully. What is at stake for Europe is the continued stability of energy markets. The EU has already endured one energy crisis triggered by the war, with natural gas prices spiking to record levels in 2022.
A new round of tariffs targeting Russian oil buyers could push prices higher again, particularly if major consumers like India and China are forced to scramble for alternative supplies. The United States, for its part, is in a stronger position.
American oil production has surged since 2022, making the US a net exporter of crude and refined products. The Trump administration has made energy dominance a central pillar of its foreign policy, and the proposed tariffs fit into a broader strategy of using economic tools to pressure adversaries. The plan is still under discussion.
No formal proposal has been tabled, and the details remain fluid. But the direction is clear: Western powers are looking for new ways to tighten the screws on Moscow, and the existing sanctions architecture has not been enough. Against this backdrop, the question of enforcement looms large.
The existing price cap mechanism has been difficult to police, with reports of Russian oil being sold above the cap using opaque shipping arrangements. Tariffs would require a different kind of enforcement, one that relies on customs data and trade documentation rather than maritime insurance records.
The IEA data showing a 20% drop in Russian oil export revenue in 2023 is a reminder that the current measures have had an impact, but it is also a measure of how much further Western powers want to go. The proposed tariffs represent a recognition that the status quo is not achieving the desired result.
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