DUBAI, July 13 — A new 20% toll on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz is set to push global oil prices significantly higher, adding roughly $16 to a barrel of Brent crude that traded around $80 in June 2025. The practical upshot for consumers, in plain terms, is that the cost of everything from gasoline to goods shipped in containers could climb. The math is straightforward.
A 20% levy on an $80 barrel of oil adds $16, which means prices could rise to $96 or more depending on how markets react. Think of it like a congestion toll on a highway — except this highway is the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, and the toll gets baked into the price of nearly everything that moves.
How the toll works
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. About 20% of global container traffic passes through it, so the toll doesn’t just hit crude oil. It also increases shipping costs for containerized goods.
The Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping costs for dry bulk cargo like grain and iron ore, could rise as well. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that in 2023, the United States imported about 500,000 barrels per day from the Persian Gulf.
That means American consumers will feel the effects indirectly through higher global prices, even if the U.S. doesn’t import all its oil from that region. The mechanism is simple: oil is a globally traded commodity, so a price increase anywhere lifts prices everywhere.
LNG and supply chain risks
The toll also threatens liquefied natural gas supply chains. Qatar exports about 77 million tons of LNG annually through the strait. That’s a massive volume of gas destined for Asia and Europe, and any disruption in the strait could send energy prices spiking further.
The International Energy Agency warned in 2024 that any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil prices to spike by 30-50%. A 30% jump from $80 would put oil at $104; a 50% spike would push it to $120.
Those are the kinds of numbers that start to slow down economies.
Alternative routes exist, but have limits
There are some workarounds. Saudi Arabia operates the East-West pipeline, which can carry 5 million barrels per day across the kingdom, bypassing the strait entirely. The United Arab Emirates has the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, with capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day.
These pipelines offer some relief, but they can’t replace the full volume that moves through the strait every day. The practical upshot is that the toll adds a layer of cost and uncertainty to global energy markets at a time when prices are already sensitive.
For ordinary readers, the so-what is clear: higher oil prices eventually mean higher prices for gasoline, heating oil, and the plastic and synthetic materials in countless consumer goods. The toll on the Strait of Hormuz is a tax on global trade, and consumers everywhere will pay it.
