MOSCOW, July 11 — The United States is considering new tariffs on Russian oil exports that could cut billions of dollars annually from Moscow’s energy revenue, according to officials familiar with the proposal. The measures would target the roughly 5 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products that Russia shipped abroad in 2023, with the aim of closing loopholes in the existing G7 price cap mechanism.
Russia remains one of the world’s largest oil producers, with average daily output of about 10.5 million barrels in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency. The country’s export volume that year saw approximately 60 percent flowing to China and India, making those two economies the primary customers for Russian crude.
The proposed US tariffs would add a direct cost to those transactions, potentially reducing revenue that in 2022 stood at roughly $218 billion from fossil fuel exports, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Loopholes and the Shadow Fleet
The G7 price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian crude oil, implemented on December 5, 2022, has already limited Moscow’s earnings from seaborne shipments. But the record shows that Russia has circumvented the cap by deploying a shadow fleet of tankers and selling to buyers outside the mechanism, particularly in Asia. The proposed tariffs could close some of these loopholes by imposing direct costs on transactions, rather than relying on Western service providers to enforce the price ceiling.
The US itself is now the world’s largest oil producer, with output exceeding 13 million barrels per day in 2023, according to industry data. That production level gives Washington leverage to influence global prices, officials confirmed.
The tariffs might lead to higher oil prices in the short term, as markets adjust to reduced Russian supply, but the US position as a major producer could offset some of the shock.
Global Inflation Risks
The International Monetary Fund has warned that further disruptions to Russian oil exports could increase global inflation. US inflation peaked at 8.7 percent in June 2022 but has since fallen to around 3.5 percent in early 2025, according to official figures. Any new spike in energy costs would complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep inflation moving downward.
The proposed tariffs could also disrupt global supply chains, as Russia is a major supplier to emerging economies. China and India, which together absorbed the bulk of Russian exports in 2023, would face the most immediate pressure to find alternative supplies.
The strategic calculus for Moscow involves not just lost revenue but the risk of losing market share in Asia, a region where Russia has invested heavily in pipeline and port infrastructure over the past decade.
What to Watch Next
The coming weeks will show whether the Trump administration moves forward with the tariff proposal or uses it as leverage in broader negotiations over the Ukraine conflict. European allies have pressed for tighter enforcement of existing sanctions rather than new tariffs that could raise global energy prices. Moscow, for its part, has signaled it will continue to expand its shadow fleet and deepen energy ties with Beijing and New Delhi, regardless of the outcome in Washington.
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