The Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory is falling back to Earth, a stark reminder that orbital decay is an inescapable physical law for aging hardware. After 22 years of operations, far beyond its two-year design life, the telescope is expected to reenter the atmosphere on Nov. 4. The loss follows a failed attempt to extend its life, a failure that has sharpened the strategic calculus for NASA as it looks toward its next flagship asset, the Hubble Space Telescope.
The Failure of the Swift Boost
The reentry of Swift is the direct result of a mission that was rushed into development due to heightened solar activity. This solar expansion increased atmospheric drag, accelerating the telescope’s descent and forcing NASA to act quickly. The agency partnered with Katalyst Space Technologies on a $30 million mission to lift Swift’s orbit using a spacecraft named LINK.
LINK launched successfully this summer, but control problems prevented it from meeting up with the telescope. The mission was abandoned, leaving Swift to its fate. This event underscores the technical risks inherent in servicing large, aging satellites in orbit. It is a concrete example of the fragility of space infrastructure, where a single control failure can end decades of scientific output.
The Hubble Dilemma
While Swift is falling, Hubble faces a similar, albeit more distant, trajectory. Launched in 1990, the Hubble Space Telescope is a joint project of NASA and the European Space Agency, with operations overseen by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. It currently orbits at an altitude of around 540 km. At this height, the atmosphere is extremely thin, but it is not absent. This faint layer of gas creates resistance that gradually slows Hubble down and lowers its orbit.
Unlike modern satellites, Hubble does not have a propulsion system capable of regularly pushing itself back to a higher altitude. NASA’s latest assessment suggests that if no intervention is made, Hubble is on track to fall into Earth’s atmosphere in 2033 or 2034. The agency has identified 2032 as the critical deadline; any servicing mission designed to raise Hubble’s orbit must be ready by then to avoid the increasing risks of atmospheric drag.
Seeking Private Solutions
In response to this ticking clock, NASA issued a request for information on Oct. 29. The agency is asking private companies to detail how they could service the observatory, raise its orbit, or improve its capabilities. It is a call for ideas, not a decision to launch a mission. The request also allows for options regarding a safe, controlled reentry or disposal in orbit at the end of Hubble’s life.
SpaceX is currently conducting a study to determine if it is possible to re-boost the flying observatory. NASA has also asked for additional information about commercial capabilities available to re-boost satellites in orbit. This marks a shift in how the agency approaches its legacy assets, looking beyond its internal resources to the private sector for potential solutions. The strategy reflects a broader geopolitical and economic trend: leveraging commercial innovation to maintain critical scientific infrastructure.
The Strategic Calculus
In an Oct. 30 agency statement, he said that Hubble’s output means the agency should look at every reasonable chance to keep it working as long as possible. He tied this decision to the possibility that a rescue could cost less than launching a different mission. In a post on X the same day, he stated that the effort was worthwhile because “Hubble deserves it.”
The scientific stakes are high. According to NASA figures, Hubble’s observations have produced at least 23,000 scientific papers. The agency reported in September that astronomers request about seven times as much observing time on Hubble as is available each year. This demand signal indicates that the telescope is still a primary tool for research, not a relic. Hubble helped show that the expansion of the universe is accelerating, a discovery that won the Nobel Prize. It has contributed findings on planets, galaxies, and stars, and it often works alongside other telescopes.
For the public, Hubble is the source of widely known images such as the Eagle Nebula’s “Pillars of Creation,” which has been revisited several times over the decades. These images have shaped the global understanding of the cosmos. The telescope’s ability to capture distant galaxies and observe stars being born and dying has transformed our understanding of the universe, including helping scientists estimate its age.
Risks and Precedents
The path to saving Hubble is not without precedent, but the precedents are mixed. In 2022, NASA turned down a servicing proposal for Hubble over risks to the healthy telescope. Now, the agency is asking for ideas again, signaling a change in risk tolerance driven by the approaching orbital decay. The earlier Swift attempt shows the risk of a rescue; the failure of the LINK spacecraft highlights the technical challenges of rendezvousing with a large, non-cooperative or semi-cooperative target in a decaying orbit.
If no rescue happens, Hubble’s observations would end when it comes down, or earlier if NASA chose a controlled reentry. A successful servicing mission could extend that run, though the outcome of NASA’s inquiry is not known. NASA is also developing its next flagship space telescope. Extending Hubble’s life could give scientists more time to make discoveries before a new generation of observatories takes over. This bridge period is crucial for maintaining continuity in long-term astronomical research.
NASA will now see what proposals industry sends back. The agency has not committed to a mission, and the request leaves open the possibility of a controlled end for the telescope. The window for action is narrowing, and the next steps depend on the feasibility and cost of the commercial proposals that are currently being evaluated.
Sources
- NASA Seeks Ideas to Save Hubble Before It Falls From Orbit in 2033 or 2034
- Hubble telescope could crash on Earth. Nasa racing to save aged observatory
Photo: Bill Stafford (Public domain)
