ROME, July 13 — The shift is already underway, and the numbers tell the story. Global energy markets are recalibrating in real time as disruptions to Russian oil infrastructure continue to reshape supply lines, pricing, and geopolitical alliances. Russia’s crude oil exports fell by 8% year-on-year in 2024, driven by a combination of international sanctions and attacks on its energy infrastructure.
That drop occurred against a backdrop of rising global demand, which hit 102 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency has flagged the risk of supply shortages if the pace of attacks intensifies.
Europe’s sharp turn away from Russian oil
The most dramatic shift has been in Europe. In 2021, Russian oil accounted for 40% of the continent’s total imports. By 2024, that figure had fallen to less than 10%.
European countries moved aggressively to diversify suppliers. Natural gas has told a different story.
Russia’s pipeline exports to Europe have dropped by 80% since 2022, but gas prices have been less affected than oil prices during the same period.
India and China step in
While Europe pulled back, India and China moved in. India imported more than 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude in 2023, drawn by steep discounts as Moscow sought alternative buyers. Chinese refiners also increased purchases, taking advantage of the price gap between Russian oil and global benchmarks.
The trend underneath is clear: Russian crude is being rerouted, not removed from the market. But the rerouting comes with costs.
Shipping routes through the Black Sea have become riskier, and insurance premiums for tankers operating in those waters have risen. That adds friction to the global supply chain, even if the total volume of oil moving remains relatively stable.
What to watch next
The IEA’s warning about potential supply shortages is the key signal. If attacks on Russian infrastructure escalate further, the global market could face a tighter squeeze than the current rerouting alone would suggest. European countries have already made their move.
The question now is whether India and China can absorb enough discounted crude to keep the system balanced — or whether the next disruption will push prices higher across the board. Watch this space.
The energy map is being redrawn, and the next phase of this shift is still unfolding.
