MOSCOW, July 13 — Ukraine’s campaign of drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure is exacting a measurable toll on the country’s refining capacity, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The attacks have cut Russia’s oil refining throughput by an estimated 10 to 15 percent in 2024. That is the claim.
The mechanics here are straightforward: fewer barrels processed means fewer barrels exported. The knock-on effect on global markets is already visible.
Russia’s export of refined petroleum products — diesel and gasoline — dropped by approximately 5 percent in 2024. That is a meaningful slice of a market that Moscow has long used as a revenue engine and a geopolitical lever. The catch is that these strikes are not one-off events; they are cumulative.
Each hit compounds the last.
Domestic price spikes
Inside Russia, the pressure is showing up at the pump. Gasoline prices rose by 8 percent in some regions during 2024, according to the S&P Global data. That is a politically sensitive number for the Kremlin.
Fuel affordability is not an abstraction in a country where distances are vast and personal vehicle ownership is widespread. The price spikes were temporary, but the pattern is telling: when refineries go offline, domestic supply tightens fast.
Follow the money. Russia’s oil and gas revenues accounted for 30 percent of its federal budget in 2024. That is a hefty dependency.
Western sanctions have already squeezed Moscow’s access to technology, insurance, and shipping. Now the drone strikes are adding a physical dimension to that financial pressure.
The combination is what makes this more than a tactical nuisance for the Russian military.
A strike that may shift global diesel prices
The April 27, 2025 strike on Stavropol Krai stands out. On closer reading, that attack may further tighten supply, and the S&P Global analysts warn it could push global diesel prices higher if Russian exports take another hit. Diesel is the fuel that moves trucks, trains, and farm equipment across much of the world.
A price increase in that market would not stay contained to Russia. The timing matters.
The Stavropol strike happened this year, and the data from S&P Global covers 2024. That means the 10-15 percent refining throughput reduction and the 5 percent export drop are already in the rearview mirror. The Stavropol hit is the new variable.
If it disrupts a major refinery, the 2025 numbers could look worse. What to watch next: diesel futures on global exchanges, and any signs that Moscow is struggling to repair damaged facilities faster than Ukrainian drones can target new ones.
The economics here are brutal but simple — every day a refinery is offline is a day of lost revenue for a budget that depends on oil and gas for nearly a third of its income. The strikes are not random; they are aimed at the financial engine of the war.
