History has a way of repeating itself, and not always in a good way. Germany is learning that lesson right now. The country’s state-owned broadcaster, Westdeutsche Rundfunk, is running a campaign against air conditioning.
Its science platform Quark declared: “What Cools us Down Heats the Planet.” The timing is brutal. For the third day in a row, a new record high temperature has been measured in Germany, according to radio station Deutschlandfunk.
The extreme heat is damaging infrastructure. Asphalt and concrete surfaces on the Autobahn are breaking up. Wildfires are burning in Saxony-Anhalt, Rhineland-Palatinate, and Bavaria.
This is not the first time environmental campaigns have clashed with brutal reality. In the summer of 2018, Sweden saw a similar heatwave.
Wildfires crept into the Arctic Circle. At the time, some Swedish municipalities urged people not to use air conditioning, citing energy use and emissions. The advice was largely ignored.
Sales of portable AC units spiked. People voted with their wallets. The Social Democrats lost ground in the 2018 election.
The far-right Sweden Democrats gained. The pattern is there.
German commentators reportedly fear the same thing now. The political calculation looks shaky. The right-wing Alternative for Germany — AfD — is approaching a record-breaking 30 percent in the latest opinion polls.
The party’s common-sense approach to air conditioning is expected to boost its support in the upcoming East German state elections. “We must not leave [the issue of] air conditioning,” the party has argued.
That is a direct challenge to the Left and the Greens, who have long campaigned against AC in the name of climate change. Follow the votes. Telling people they cannot cool their homes during a record heatwave is not a vote-winner.
It never has been. In the United States, the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave killed over 800 people. Many of the dead were found in homes without air conditioning.
After that, Seattle passed a law requiring new apartments to include cooling systems. No politician there campaigned against AC afterward.
The lesson was learned in blood. Germany is not learning the lesson. The broadcaster warns that air conditioning systems contribute to global warming, claiming the Earth could warm by 0.05 degrees by 2050.
That number is small. The immediate cost of no cooling is large.
Infrastructure is failing. People are suffering. The campaign, reported by Germany’s Apollo News, is being rolled out just as the country faces infrastructure damage.
The mechanics are worth dissecting. German leftists and Green politicians have long pushed this line. It has not worked before.
It is not working now. The AfD is not the only party watching this.
The Greens are watching their polling numbers. The Left is watching. The calculus is simple.
A 0.05-degree future warming projection is abstract. A 38-degree day in Berlin is concrete.
People pick concrete. They always have. In 2015, during a European heatwave, French President François Hollande urged people to limit air conditioning use.
The advice was widely mocked. Hollande’s approval ratings did not recover. The lesson was there.
Germany is getting a repeat lesson. The record heat is not stopping.
The wildfires are not stopping. The infrastructure damage is not stopping. The campaign against air conditioning is still running.
History says that combination does not end well for the people running the campaign.
