LONDON, July 13 — The story begins not with a single dramatic event, but with a quiet calculation that could reshape the economics of global shipping. A 20% toll on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, announced on March 20, 2025, is now being absorbed into the cost structures of the world’s largest oil tankers and container vessels. For those involved in the daily business of moving crude oil, the numbers tell an immediate story.
In 2023, the average cost to charter a Very Large Crude Carrier for a voyage from the Persian Gulf to Asia stood at about $50,000 per day, according to the Baltic Exchange. The new toll adds approximately $10,000 per day per vessel.
For a typical 150-day round trip, that works out to roughly $1.5 million per voyage.
Passing the cost along
At its heart, this is a story about who ultimately pays. The additional expense is likely to be passed on to consumers. In the United States, gasoline prices averaged $3.50 per gallon in March 2025, according to AAA.
That figure, analysts now warn, could climb. Global oil prices were already around $85 per barrel for Brent crude on March 19, 2025.
According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, the toll could push prices higher by $5 to $10 per barrel. The effect is not limited to crude. The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for about 20% of global container traffic.
Goods from China, India, and Southeast Asia move through those waters. A toll on that passage touches everything from electronics to clothing.
Rerouting the fleet
Shipping companies are now weighing their options. Major carriers like Maersk and MSC may choose to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, the southern tip of Africa. That decision, however, comes with its own costs.
Such a detour would add 10 to 14 days to each voyage, and fuel costs would rise by 30%. For a tanker already facing higher daily charter rates, the arithmetic becomes a question of time versus money.
What unfolded after the March announcement was a slow recalibration across the industry. Some operators may decide the toll is the cheaper option. Others may take the long way around.
What to watch next is whether the rerouting becomes widespread enough to affect supply chains more broadly. A longer journey for container ships means delayed deliveries for retailers and manufacturers who depend on just-in-time inventory.
The toll, in that sense, is not just a line item on a shipping invoice. It is a variable that now touches the price of fuel at the pump, the cost of goods on the shelf, and the route a tanker captain plots on the map.
