TEHRAN — The aftershocks of a single day of military action are still being felt in global energy markets, following US strikes on Iranian targets. On February 2, 2025, American forces hit Iran. The very next day, the price of Brent crude jumped by 4.2 percent, settling at $89.50 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, rose to $86.10. The numbers tell a story of immediate, tangible disruption — but the deeper narrative is about a country that sits at the heart of the world’s oil architecture, and what happens when that architecture is shaken.
Iran is not a minor player. In 2024, the country pumped an average of 3.2 million barrels of oil every single day. Of that, roughly 1.5 million barrels were exported, the vast majority of it heading to China aboard what analysts call a “grey fleet” of tankers — vessels that operate under various flags and ownership structures to keep the oil moving despite sanctions.
Those exports brought in an estimated $35 billion in revenue in 2024.
A chokepoint and a threat
Much of that oil, and a great deal more from Iran’s neighbours, must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway, just off Iran’s southern coast, is the conduit for 20 percent of all global oil shipments. It has been described as the world’s most important oil chokepoint, and in past conflicts, Tehran has threatened to close it.
The threat has not been carried out in this latest cycle of violence. But the possibility alone is enough to keep markets on edge.
The US Energy Information Administration reported that global oil inventories were already at a five-year low in January 2025 — meaning the system had very little cushion when the strikes landed. Within 24 hours of the US action, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries called an emergency meeting. The subject: supply stability.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer and Iran’s regional rival, said it could increase its own output by 2 million barrels per day to help fill any gap. That is a significant buffer, but not an infinite one.
The strategic reserve and the risk ahead
The United States maintains its own emergency stockpile. As of January 2025, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 375 million barrels — a substantial figure, but one that has been drawn down repeatedly over the past decade. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, watching the situation closely, have estimated there is a 10 percent risk of a sustained oil price spike above $100 per barrel if the conflict escalates further.
That is not a prediction. It is a probability — and one that energy markets, supply chain managers, and central bankers are all watching.
A spike to triple digits would ripple through the global economy in ways that go far beyond the price at the pump. The situation remains fluid. Iran’s oil infrastructure was hit in the February strikes, but the country has continued to produce and export.
The grey fleet still sails. The Strait remains open.
But the underlying vulnerabilities — low global inventories, a concentrated chokepoint, and a major producer under direct military pressure — have not gone away. For now, the world’s oil system is holding. But the margin for error, as the numbers make clear, is razor-thin.
Sources
- Oil prices surge 8% as Iran conflict and… – The HinduBusinessLine
- Oil extends surge as fresh US strikes against Iran rattle market
